Warriors vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Covers

03 March 2024

Warriors vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Warriors put an end to the Celtics championship hopes just a couple years ago, and they've been giving the Celtics fits ever since. With the spread reaching double digits, our NBA picks believe that's simply too many points.

Winning an NBA championship is just as much about minimizing weaknesses as it is about maximizing one's strengths. The Boston Celtics have unquestionably been this year’s best team and are the NBA odds favorite to take home the Larry O’Brien this summer.

But a series of playoff collapses are, rightly or wrongly, held against them as evidence that they’re not as mentally strong as the competition. While those critics can only truly be answered in the postseason, a matchup with the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals two years ago is the next best thing.

The Golden State Warriors haven’t looked like a championship contender for most of the season, but right now, they look like a threat to win any series they’re in.

free NBA picks for the Warriors vs. Celtics on Sunday, March 3 to see if I think they still have Boston’s number.

Warriors vs Celtics odds

Warriors vs Celtics predictions

The Boston Celtics are the team to beat this season. That means they get everybody’s best shot, which in turn makes their dominant record (47-12) and point differential (+10.8) all the more impressive.

But if there is one team the Celtics still haven’t managed to totally figure out, it's their old NBA Finals foes, the Golden State Warriors.

Including the playoffs, the Warriors have won five of their last six games against the Celtics. While head-to-head franchise records don’t mean that much for most teams in the NBA, many of the core pieces for these rotations are still around and playing prominent roles.

If there is a psychological edge to be had in this matchup, it belongs to the Dubs. Golden State was also the first team to beat Boston on its home floor this season, snuffing out its dreams of an undefeated home record.

While it was only a season ago the Warriors couldn’t ever win on the road, they’re now on an eight-game road winning streak. Golden State is also 20-8 against the spread on the road this season. That’s a cover rate of 71.4%, the best mark in the Association.

To be clear, I believe Boston is still better, but it's catching the Warriors close to the peak of their powers this season, and they are one of only two or three teams who will not be intimidated by the Celtics whatsoever.

I think 11.5 points would be a reasonable line for two teams that are otherwise this far apart on the numbers, but the Warriors are not a normal matchup for Boston. It’s also important to note there are two critical players on the injury report for Sunday: Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzingis.

Steph was a surprising addition, and he’s listed as questionable due to knee bursitis. I think that update is just Golden State doing its due diligence, as Curry was able to play his normal rotation on Friday with no issues.

Inflammation is typically an issue that can be managed, and as this isn’t a back-to-back and it’s against the best team in the NBA, I would be shocked if he doesn’t suit up.

Porzingis has a quadriceps contusion, and while it doesn’t sound serious, the Celtics have erred on the side of caution when it comes to lower body injuries with the Latvian big man.

Porzingis has already missed 15 games this season largely out of that sense of caution, so if one of these key players is likely to miss Sunday’s game, I’d think KP is far more likely.

This game is going to mean more than a typical regular season game. In games with heightened pressure and expectations, the Warriors typically fare better than this line suggests.

My best bet: Warriors +11.5 (-115 at Betway)

Warriors vs Celtics same-game parlay

Warriors +11Jayson Tatum 5+ assists

Jonathan Kuinga Under 0.5 threes made

There has been a developing media narrative over the last month that Jayson Tatum is being overlooked as a deserving MVP candidate. While once upon a time being the best player on the best team was seen as enough to carry the award, basketball analysis has long since become more sophisticated.

Tatum frankly isn’t as good as the other Top 4 names in the race, and one of the areas they are all better than him is as a playmaker. But that doesn’t mean Tatum isn’t good for his position or making strides. Tatum’s 20.7% assist rate is right in line with his previous few seasons, but he’s at the highest assist-to-usage ratio of his career.

While Tatum might not win MVP, he’s doing a great job of letting his teammates star in their roles, and that might be the difference in a championship run. As this is a marquee matchup, I expect Tatum to command the offense at a higher rate than usual. He’s also averaging 6.7 assists per game over his last 10 and has had at least five in all but one.

Jonathan Kuminga has played a massive role for the Warriors during this recent run. Probably the reason he didn’t play much before now and also why he’s been so effective is that the way he plays runs counter to traditional Golden State principles.

Kuminga is a relentless attacker, but he’s not a shooter. Kuminga made just four threes in all of February, shooting just 21.1% from downtown. He’s only made one three in his last eight games and has frequently finished with one or no attempts at all.

Kuminga seems to be focused on honing the things he’s good at rather than worrying about his outside game this season. Given how few attempts he makes, I think this is great value for the final leg of my same-game parlay.

Best NBA bonuses for Warriors vs Celtics

Instant payout for NBA moneylines

If your team goes up by 20! Claim Now

Bet $5 on any wager

Get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now

Warriors vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

There has been some significant line movement for Sunday’s matinee matchup. The Celtics opened as -9.5 favorites at most books, saw that drop to -8.5, but is now as high as -11.5.

There are certainly justifiable reasons for the Celtics to be strong favorites. Boston is 17-14 ATS at home and 28-3 straight up, but of course, one of those three losses came against Golden State. The Warriors for their part are coming on strong ATS, going 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Sunday’s total opened at 233.5 but that’s fallen a few points to 230.5 at most sportsbooks.

So much of the first part of the season was spent discussing the historic dominance and gaudy numbers put out by the Indiana Pacers offense that I don’t think many realize the Celtics have had the top offense for a while now.

Their 122.6 offensive rating is 1.4 points per 100 better than second-placed Indiana, making the Pacers closer to the sixth-best offense in the NBA than they are to Boston.

The Celtics' ability to play five shooters at all times has opposing teams in fits, and they’re mixing in enough post play and other weapons to keep defenders on their toes. Those strengths take a big hit if Porzingis is out, however.

Golden State for its part has tended to play in high scoring games when marked as the NBA odds underdog. The Over is now 13-8 when it's the underdog this season.