Washington Huskies vs Oregon State Beavers Prediction, Odds and Picks
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Money Line Pick
Oregon State Win
Reasoning
This is a game that I’ve had circled for over a month now as the Oregon State Beavers should capitalize on what is a great situational spot for them in Corvallis. Washington is in the midst of its toughest stretch of games this season, having just defeated USC on the road in a 52-42 barnburner before following that performance up with a 35-28 victory in Seattle over a physical Utah team that was tough to put away. Now, the Huskies are entering an environment in Corvallis that few teams emerge from victorious. In fact, Oregon State’s only loss at home in the last 2 seasons was a 3-point defeat to USC in 2022, in a game that should’ve gone the Beavers way if not for some unfortunate turnover luck. We’re likely looking at another tight game with momentum swings and plenty of scoring, and Oregon State has shown that it can put up points in bunches while also forcing turnovers and making plays on defense in front of a raucous home crowd. We’ve already seen the likes of Utah and UCLA struggle play poorly at Reser Stadium and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Washington fell victim to the Corvallis voodoo.
Styles make fights, and this is a game where the home team has the decided edge in that department. Oregon State’s top-20 EPA per pass defense should cause some issues for Michael Penix Jr. and an elite Washington passing attack that’s only been slowed down by Arizona State to this point in the season. The Beavers weakness defensively is on the ground, but the Huskies offense is a pass-focused unit that only registered a dominant effort on the ground against USC’s porous defense back in Week 10. If Jonathan Smith’s defense consistently drops 8 and forces Washington to run the ball (effectively taking away the consistent threat of the explosive play in the process), that’ll play to the Beavers’ advantage. On the other side of the ball, Oregon State is a run-first offense that excels in the trenches, something that Washington’s defense has had major issues with all season long (108th in EPA per rush, bottom 10 in rushing success rate).
With an elite ground attack and a defense that can limit Washington’s explosiveness through the air, the game script for the Beavers is one that leads to believe that they’ll get it done. Let’s take Oregon State as a short underdog to make a statement at home and potentially shake up the Pac-12 title race.
Oregon State ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
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Payout
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$18.70
Game Totals Pick
These teams operate on a completely different mindset, but both sides are no stranger to playing games sailing over the total. The Beavers are a ground-first operation, but Oregon State has become a lot more explosive this season with the addition of DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback. Unsurprisingly, Uiagalelei has played his best at home, where the Oregon State passing attack has looked its best as a whole. Given that Bryson Barnes just saw success against this depleted Washington defense a week ago, I’d expect the same results in a advantageous situation for the Beavers offense. And while I foresee the home team winning this game, you’ve read me gush about this Washington offense all season long and that won’t change here. Kalen DeBoer’s team is essentially playing basketball on grass and this unit is essentially a lock to put up 30+ points each week. Considering that they just hung 35 points on Utah (in a game where they should’ve scored closer to 45) in windy and cold conditions, I have no issues regarding possible rain in the forecast here either. Let’s go with another Pac-12 over.
Over 63.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 64.
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$19.09
Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email [email protected].
