Week 9 College Football Player Props Primer and Best Bets

Mario Anderson, RB, South Carolina at Texas A&M - Under 17.5 Receiving Yards

While Anderson has taken over lead back duties for the Gamecocks, his value lies primarily in the run game where he amassed 68 carries for 355 rushing yards over the last four games. Over that span he has seen eight targets for 47 receiving yards and a lowly .56 yards per route average. He has cleared 10 receiving yards just once all season, as Dakereon Joyner (18 recs on 20 targets for .89 yards per route) and JuJu McDowell (7 recs on 10 targets for 1.15 Y/RR) have been used often in pass sets, receiving three targets each against Missouri last game.

This week South Carolina faces a tenacious Texas A&M defense that is allowing just 4.7 yards per play (16th) and a 33.2% success rate (7th), while ranking 9th overall in EPA/Play. The Aggies have only allowed two completions to the running back position in each of their four SEC conference games. South Carolina is giving the majority of passing down work to McDowell and Joyner, so the potential for Anderson to convert the few opportunities USC RBs are likely to have in the receiving game is already low. I’m taking the Under 17.5 Receiving Yards on Anderson.

Demond Claiborne, RB, Wake Forest vs. Florida State - Under 52.5 Rushing Yards

The Wake Forest co-starter has been up-and-down this season, but has had his best performances when Justice Ellison was out of the lineup, most notably his 19 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown against Clemson when Ellison was injured after one carry. Claiborne has been out-carried by Ellison 31-to-17 since returning the last two games, with Claiborne breaking a season-long 42 yard run last week against Pitt (previous long = 20 yards) which helped him rush for 96 yards and two touchdowns. He still was out-carried by a 20-to-14 margin, but with Wake Forest starting ineffective QB Santino Marucci, they were forced to employ a 41-to-21 run/pass ratio in order to eek out a 21-17 victory against the offensively challenged Panthers who rank 113th in success rate (38%) and 109th in EPA/Play.

This week Wake Forest takes on the fourth-ranked Seminoles who are scoring 42 points per game (4th-most) and are allowing just 1.37 points per drive (10th) on defense. This Wake Forest offense has cratered without Sam Hartman, ranking 125th in rushing performance and 128th in EPA/Play while averaging a paltry 4.8 yards per play (108th). Starting QB Mitch Griffis is said to be back at the helm this week and listed as the starter on the team’s early week depth chart, which should cause a more balanced run/pass game script than last week under Marucci. I see FSU getting out to an early lead forcing a languishing Wake to keep pace with their high-octane offense. With Ellison clearly listed as the primary ball carrier on the depth chart, and the Demon Deacons likely trailing, i’m backing the Under 52.5 Rushing Yards on RB2 Demond Claiborne.

Donovan Smith, QB, Houston at Kansas State - Over 254.5 Passing Yards (middle)

This passing yardage line opened at 240.5 on FanDuel, which broached the possibility of a 30-yard hedge opportunity considering the parlay-markets had Smith pegged at 270.5 Pass Yards upon their initial drop, which DK now has up at 271.5. That discrepancy has narrowed to 254.5 and 271.5, but it’s still a 17-yard middle opportunity on a Friday morning, which is rare once the prop markets settle.

Kansas State gave up 356 passing yards to Missouri, which looks a lot more understandable in hindsight with Mizzou OC Kirby Moore lighting up defenses to the tune of 9.55 yards per pass attempt (7th in FBS). Since then, Kansas State stalled the lackluster passing attacks of TCU (backup QB Josh Hoover), Texas Tech (backup QB Jake Strong) and Oklahoma State (Alan Bowman). However the closest comp for Houston is UCF who accounted for 260 passing yards with backup-QB Timmy McClain under center, which is right in the middle sweet spot.

For his part, Smith has easily cleared his 240.5 passing yards opening line in five of his last six games, with two of those Overs landing at 253 vs. West Virginia (only 27 pass attempts) and 260 versus Rice, which are both in the “Gold Zone” for the purposes of this middle opportunity. I think the Over 254.5 is the more likely result, with an abnormally high probability that the final tally lands in the middle, making this an excellent hedge position on the Under 271.5 given the propensity for these two teams to land in this range.

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Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona vs. Oregon State - ALT Under 199.5 Passing Yards (+245) (BR)

Fifita has acquitted himself very well during starting QB Jayden de Laura’s injury-induced absence, completing 74% of his passes with a 76.1 PFF pass grade while leading the Wildcats to an emphatic 44-6 victory over Wazzu in their last game and a narrow 43-41 triple-overtime loss to USC in Week 6. This week, Arizona’s opening day starter de Laura is back practicing and said to be fully recovered from his ankle injury with the Wildcats coming off their Week 8 Bye.

Arizona HC Jedd Fisch has played it tight to the vest, as CFB coaches often do, regarding who will be the starter against Oregon State, vowing to refrain from announcing the starter until Saturday Night. It’s anybody’s guess who starts, but HC Fisch has indicated that Fifita will have a role of some kind even if de Laura makes the start. The possibility of a QB timeshare is mana from heaven for CFB props purposes, as it only takes one snap to cash and Under, and the running clock has boosted the profitability of Unders this season. With Bet Rivers listing Fifita’s ALT Line Under 199.5 Passing Yards at almost 2.5-to-1 odds, it’s good business to take a speculative shot on this ALT line considering AZ’s unsettled QB situation.