West Ham United vs Chelsea Prediction

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18 August 2023

Chelsea match up well with West Ham for the first time in a while, and our betting picks are especially encouraged by striker Nicolas Jackson, whom we're targeting in the shots-on-goal department.

Sunday gives us an early-season London derby in the Premier League when West Ham United welcomes Chelsea to London Stadium.

The Hammers are still adjusting to life after Declan Rice, but they’re dealing with issues both on and off the pitch as Lucas Paqueta is caught up in both transfer rumors and an alleged betting scandal. David Moyes will be hoping the additions of James-Ward Prowse and Edson Alvarez in midfield can bring a boost to the team.

Mauricio Pochettino will be ruing the loss of Reece James, as the Chelsea fullback is once again injured. However, he’ll be happy with the performance he saw last weekend against Liverpool, as Chelsea looked much more threatening going forward and will be adding a new toy of their own with the addition of Moises Caicedo.

Two London rivals will both be seeking their first wins of the season, but only one is likely to come out on top. Find out who that is in our West Ham United vs Chelsea picks and predictions for Sunday, August 20.

West Ham United vs Chelsea best odds

West Ham United vs Chelsea picks and predictions

Chelsea’s 1-1 draw with Liverpool saw multiple players step up with big performances, but it was their new striker who left many fans hopeful for the future. Nicolas Jackson led all players with three big chances, despite having only the 17th-most touches in the match.

There were only five shots put on target in the match, two of which came from Jackson. His movement and positioning in the box were impressive, as all four of his shots came from within 16 feet. Two of them came from nearly identical positions in the first half, as he got efforts from the right side of the six-yard area. The first one was put right at the keeper while the second was placed over the bar.

But it’s that threat and skill that made Chelsea splash $37 million this summer to bring him over from Villarreal. He scored 12 goals last season in 26 La Liga appearances, with nine of those goals coming in their final eight matches.

While James and his creativity will be missed, this year’s Chelsea squad is set up to better handle that loss. Enzo Fernandez is a terrific playmaker from the deeper-lying central areas, while Conor Gallagher will likely play in the hole behind Jackson.

Pochettino also used Raheem Sterling very well against Liverpool, and he was able to connect on multiple accurate crosses and created a big chance of his own. At 6-foot-1, Jackson provides a strong target centrally for which those crosses can be used as an attack.

West Ham drew 1-1 with Bournemouth last weekend, and they were fortunate to hold onto a point. The Cherries had them pinned back for much of the second half, equalizing through striker Dominic Solanke on 82 minutes.

Bournemouth were able to put five shots on goal against West Ham from a total of 14, and Solanke accounted for two of them. His goal came from just a few feet out, and he was unfortunate not to score from another effort just outside the six-yard area. That’s important, considering Chelsea’s 13.2 yards from goal per shot was the lowest in the Premier League on Matchday 1.

Chelsea are going to offer more of a threat than Bournemouth, and will likely dominate possession. That’s going to lead to more chances for Jackson, and it’s hard to see him having a lower shot on goal floor than Solanke did a week ago.

That’s why our best bet is for Jackson to get multiple shots on target. This is plus-odds across the board, but the price at FanDuel is significantly higher than elsewhere so play it there if you’re able.

My best bet: Nicolas Jackson Over 1.5 shots on goal (+155 at FanDuel)

West Ham United vs Chelsea same-game parlay

Nicolas Jackson Over 1.5 shots on goal (+155)

Chelsea team total Over 1.5 (+106)

Chelsea first-half team total Over 0.5 (-112)

Chelsea moneyline (+105)

Sticking with Jackson and Chelsea, we’re backing them to get the win and have a great day, which plays into all four legs of a same-game parlay that pays more than five times your wager at FanDuel.

I really like Jackson to score a goal on Sunday, but the shots on goal play felt like the better one given the price. That said, the reason I like him to score is that I think Chelsea will win this match with ease.

They were very impressive against Liverpool last weekend, and one could argue they should’ve come away with all three points. As such, I like Chelsea to do what Bournemouth probably should’ve done last week, which is find the back of the net multiple times. If they can replicate the chances they had against Liverpool, they’ll easily do so.

Against Liverpool, Chelsea were on the front foot from the opening whistle. It led to them opening the scoring inside the first half, which is something Chelsea have done often against West Ham. In fact, Chelsea have scored in the first half in each of their last four trips to face West Ham, and we’re backing them to do so yet again.

However, one thing Chelsea haven’t done at West Ham is win. They’ve taken just one victory in their last six away trips, losing three times. But Chelsea also have beaten West Ham more than any team not named Tottenham in the Premier League era. I’m backing them to reverse their fortunes and get the win at London Stadium.

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West Ham United vs Chelsea spread and Over/Under analysis

Those who feel West Ham have a shot at repeating their history, however, will find value in the 3-way line. The Hammers are getting +250 to win and the draw is priced the same, while Chelsea are getting just +105. The double chance for West Ham is a bit juiced at -140, but it’s worth looking at.

A 1-1 draw was the result a season ago in this fixture, and Chelsea have lost two of their last four visits. But this Chelsea team is playing well, and they appear to have found a better striker option than what they’ve had the past two campaigns.

With West Ham trying to integrate two new faces at the double pivot in midfield, it is likely going to cause some issues for them. That’s why I’m on Chelsea to win.

As for the total, the Over 2.5 is priced slightly better than the Under. The markets are fairly split with both options requiring a bit of juice.

I’m personally leaning towards the Over. Based on how things played out for both sides a week ago, Chelsea look like scoring multiple goals while likely giving West Ham enough openings to get one of their own. However, the better play is for Chelsea to hit the Over 1.5 on their team total, which we have in our parlay.