Wolves vs Chelsea Odds & Picks

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22 December 2023

Chelsea looked like their season had a lot of promise after picking up Christopher Nkunku, but injuries have derailed their hopes all season. With Nkunku back in the fold, our EPL picks are backing the French forward to find the back of the net.

We have a rare event on Sunday with Wolves vs Chelsea being the first Christmas Eve game in the Premier League since 1995. It’s going to be fascinating to see how this festive event impacts both sets of players and big questions are being asked of both teams.

Who will come out on top of this final pre-Christmas bout? Find out in my EPL predictions for the Wolves vs Chelsea.

Wolves vs Chelsea best odds

EPL predictions for Wolves vs Chelsea

Wolves are 13th in the Premier League table at the start of this matchweek, just three points behind 10th-placed Chelsea. I think there’s an argument the league position doesn’t tell the tale of each team’s season correctly.

For Wolves, they’re better than the five wins would show. They’ve been unlucky — perhaps unluckier than any other team — so far this season. Gary O’Neill has done a great job with the club since being parachuted in just before the season started and they have played, at least in my view, far better than either Brentford or Bournemouth who also sit on 19 points.

Chelsea too have had a horrendous season. I have serious doubts over their transfer policy but I believe in Mauricio Pochettino as manager and their injury crisis has been mind-blowing. Had they had a full squad for the bulk of this season I’m sure they’d be pushing for the European positions and not sat at the bottom of the top half of the table. This brings me to my best bet for this game, which involves a player just returning from injury — Christopher Nkunku — to score at a big price of +200.

Despite being signed in the summer, we only saw the French forward make his debut for Chelsea midweek in the Carabao Cup where he came off the bench and converted a penalty.

Nicolas Jackson, who has been starting up front for Chelsea, wasn’t originally signed as somebody who would lead the line immediately. A serious injury has meant Nkunku has missed the start of the season, but it was noticeable how the team changed shape when he came on against Newcastle and then almost instantly looked better.

He's behind Jackson in the betting to score here, perhaps with some thinking he’ll again start from the bench — but I don’t think he will. This is a player who was signed by Chelsea for big money to be a star and I think we’ll see Pochettino want to get him in the lineup as soon as he can.

Nkunku has bagged 36 goals in the past two seasons in the Bundesliga, despite missing some time last year with injury. He isn’t a classic number nine but his movement and dribbling are exceptional, and he can find spaces to showcase his great finishing.

My best bet: Christopher Nkunku anytime goal (+200 at TonyBet)

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Wolves vs Chelsea same-game parlay

Christopher Nkunku anytime goalCole Palmer Over 1.5 shots

Over 2.5 goals

I’m backing Cole Palmer, Chelsea’s young English talent to have Over 1.5 shots. In 14 Premier League games this season he’s averaged 2.2 shots per game, second only to Nicolas Jackson, and I think we’ll see him continue to threaten in dangerous positions and get shots off.

Finally, I'm also going to back Over 2.5 goals. Wolves' home games generally see Over 2.5 goals, as do Chelsea’s games on the road, and I’m expecting that trend to continue here.

Wolves vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis

Chelsea are favorites at -110 and although I think they’ll win, I wouldn’t recommend betting them at that price. I’m not sure a team who are 10th in the Premier League after 17 games should ever be as short as -110 regardless of which other Premier League team they’re playing. That said, I wouldn’t put my own money on either Wolves or the draw, which are both available at +270.

I do like the look of Over 2.5 goals — which you can get at -130 — with Under 2.5 goals at +105. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62.5% of Wolves home games in the Premier League and also 62.5% of Chelsea’s Premier League games on the road, including four of their past five games.

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Wolves vs Chelsea game info

Wolves vs Chelsea key injuries

Wolves: Joe Hodge CM (Out), Jonny Otto DEF (Out), Pedro Neto FWR (Questionable), Jose Sa GK (Questionable)
Chelsea: Robert Sanchez GK (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Trevoh Chalobah CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Questionable), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Noni Madueke FWR (Questionable)