What are the odds Ohio State men’s basketball makes the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

What a rollercoaster ride this season has been for these Ohio State Buckeyes. This team won 12 of its first 14 games and was darn close to being ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. Then, they lost nine of their next 11, and Chris Holtmann was promptly shown the door with six games remaining.

At 4-10, Jake Diebler’s job was to find a way to make this team play hard as the ship slowly sank to the bottom of the ocean. Once the season was over, Diebler and the staff would be let go, players would probably enter the transfer portal, (which still is going to happen, most likely) and the next coach would be hired and set out to put the pieces back together and build it new.

But so far, this Ohio State team hasn’t followed the script. They’ve won three out of four games with Diebler, including victories over Purdue and a road win at a place no Ohio State team has won in over a decade. Now, the Buckeyes are in a spot where they’re four — maybe five — wins away from punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

Last week, Connor and Justin drew their arbitrary lines of what Diebler would need to do to have the “interim” tag removed and earn the full-time head coach’s job. Justin said anything short of a national championship would mean Ross Bjork hires someone else. Connor said Diebler needs to win the Big Ten Tournament.

By a nose, Connor won with 34% of the vote. “Do more than make the tournament but not win a championship” was the second most popular option at 32%.

After 141 weeks:

Connor- 69
Justin- 53
Other- 15

(There have been four ties)

Ohio State’s path to the NCAA Tournament is narrow, but for the first time, it looks like the Buckeyes could potentially make it without winning the Big Ten Tournament. How many more wins in a row would it take?

Today’s Question: What are the odds Ohio State men’s basketball makes the NCAA Tournament?

Connor: Less than a 50% chance

Ohio State undoubtedly controls its own destiny and can make the tournament without winning the Big Ten Tournament, but it is going to take a lot. Right now this team has caught lightning in a bottle, and I’m not sure it will last as long as they need it to in order to make the tournament.

The Buckeyes are No. 65 in the NET rankings, No. 56 in KenPom, and are tied for 12th in the Big Ten as of Friday morning. Those metrics are not the only things that matter, but they do matter. Since they’re so low and do not have any Quad-1 games remaining, I think winning the final two games against Rutgers and Michigan is needed plus at least three wins in the Big Ten Tournament to be guaranteed a spot.

That means if Ohio State was sneak its way out of the bottom four spots and not play Wednesday, they would need to make it to the Big Ten championship game and finish with a record of 22-13, and 9-11 in Big Ten play.

If Ohio State did all of that, but only won two games in the Big Ten Tournament, I think they would have a puncher’s chance of getting in, but would probably be left on the outside looking in. There are too many teams similar to Ohio State, hovering between 40 and 60 in the NET, that didn’t start the season 4-10 in conference play. The Buckeyes would only have four Quad-1 wins, compared to other bubble teams — like Pitt or Virginia — who have five and seven.

That’s all assuming Ohio State doesn’t lose to Michigan or Rutgers, too. The Wolverines would love nothing more than to travel to Columbus and spoil the Buckeyes’ fun. Two years ago, Michigan beat Ohio State in Columbus without Hunter Dickinson, ruining Senior Day. Beating Rutgers on the road will be a task too, as the RAC is one of the toughest places to play in the country. Even though Rutgers isn’t much better than Ohio State, snatching a road win will be tough — the Buckeyes only have one of those this season.

To me, there are just too many things that have to go right. There’s a window, but it is incredibly small.

Justin: Above 50% chance

I think the Buckeyes have a decent chance to make the postseason, specifically the NCAA Tournament. But I will say, even if they don’t make the Big Dance, they should absolutely accept an invite to the NIT. It will only benefit them in the future. But enough of that, this is about the important tournament.

Currently, the Buckeyes are 17-12 overall and 7-11 in conference. They play against Michigan this Sunday and at Rutgers next Sunday. Michigan is the worst team in the conference and just lost by 30 at Rutgers. Rutgers has had moments of being good, but their offense is unreliable, and they scored less than 50 points at home against Maryland just last week.

Ohio State also already beat Rutgers this season, one of its two wins in January. Winning at the RAC is a different challenge, but the Buckeyes are playing with a different energy that we have seen translate to the road finally.

Now, if they win those two, which is a must, they will finish the season at 19-12 and 9-11 in the conference. Their best wins would be over Michigan State, Purdue, and Alabama. That likely would not quite be enough. However, if they can grab a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament, especially beating one of the other bubble teams and getting to 20-21 wins, that should get them to Dayton and into the play-in tournament, which I consider making the tournament because the records and statistics count as NCAA Tournament stats.

The big thing will be what happens in front of them as well, and that is the unpredictable part. They will need some teams that are currently sitting on the bubble to stumble down the stretch, including a couple of teams that are in the Big Ten, like Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota.

But somehow, some way, this thing is far from over.

• 32%

• 67%

  Less than 50% (Connor)

  (106 votes)