What we learned: Instant Coffee proves himself in Lecomte win

When Instant Coffee won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club last fall, he came off as flat with a slow time and average figure. But in retrospect, perhaps the pace affected him, especially after watching his sharp performance in winning the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds.

Instant Coffee closed into a paceless race in the clustered Kentucky Jockey Club, a race that played out in a turf-like fashion. In contrast, the pace situation appeared more favorable from the start in the Lecomte Saturday when Echo Again went to the front along with Bromley and Confidence Game applying the pressure early to his side. Visually, the chances of decent fractions seemed promising.

Echo Again led the field through fractions of 24.20 and 47.19 seconds for the 1 1/16-mile distance, which are not slow fractions at Fair Grounds.

To put those fractions in perspective, one race earlier Forza Di Oro set the pace in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) for older dirt horses with initial fractions of 25.08 and 49.75 seconds. In Race 9, an optional claimer for 3-year-olds, Determinedly led the field through a 25.31-second quarter and a half-mile in 48.94.

In the Lecomte, Instant Coffee settled in last and six lengths behind Echo Again.

Bromley soon became tired after the opening quarter, which left Echo Again and Confidence Game chasing him up front as the field approached the far turn. But Two Phil’s soon came into the picture with his wide move. After Two Phil’s made his attack on the leaders, Instant Coffee began to rally outside of the trio.

At this point, it became clear Instant Coffee would take over. When they straightened out for the stretch, Two Phil’s took the lead at first. But Instant Coffee held all the momentum, and he secured the lead in mid-stretch.

Under mild urging, Instant Coffee took the Lecomte by 2 1/2 lengths over Two Phil’s, who also deserves credit for a good effort. Two Phil’s had 5 1/4 lengths on the third-place Confidence Game, who had another three lengths on Denington in fourth. Nine lengths came between Denington and Bromley in fifth, and Echo Again eased after starting to fade from the front picture.

Those margins are a stark contrast to the Kentucky Jockey Club, where Instant Coffee won by 1 1/4 lengths and only 3 1/2 lengths separated the first eight horses at the wire. The slow pace resulted in all the horses finishing in a cluster.

Most runners in the Kentucky Jockey Club ran poorly. Given Instant Coffee came from seventh and found enough to win by 1 1/4 lengths over the clustered field, his effort probably deserves more credit. The slow pace made it too difficult for Instant Coffee to open up by more lengths.

Is this a changed opinion? Sure. Handicappers should change their opinions when more information comes in, rather than hold on if those thoughts no longer make sense. After all, the point is to analyze these Kentucky Derby trail races correctly, even if it means making adjustments later.  

With that said, Instant Coffee’s deep closing style might result in traffic problems when he meets a full field again. Also remember that Forte and Loggins finished well ahead of Instant Coffee in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1).

Instant Coffee finished the 1 1/16-mile distance in 1:45.12. As of this writing, the Beyer Speed Figure is not listed on the Daily Racing Form stakes results page yet. For what it's worth, Happy American took the Louisiana Stakes in 1:45.33 and Determinedly finished the optional claimer in 1:45.26.

Moving forward, Instant Coffee looks to be a threat in his next prep if the pace runs anywhere from moderate to fast. But the waters will get deeper.

The runner-up effort by Two Phil’s proved him to be a legitimate runner who does not need the slop. From a betting standpoint, he will offer value too as his maiden win at Colonial Downs and stakes win at Canterbury Park likely make people skeptical of whether he belongs at top-tier racetracks.  

If the connections continue down this path, Two Phil’s probably can make the Kentucky Derby with two more good placings in points races.

To discuss Confidence Game briefly before ending this post, this colt does own enough ability to eventually win graded-stakes races. But at this point, Confidence Game does not know how to win unless he sets the early pace. In contrast to his legendary aunt Zenyatta, Confidence Game wants to flash his speed and get an early, uncontested lead if possible. 

In the Lecomte, Confidence Game did not face the easiest scenario with Echo Again present and Bromley showing unexpected speed through the first quarter. If Confidence Game catches a paceless race, he can win.

But Instant Coffee gets the most credit. Ignore my past blog post knocking his Kentucky Jockey Club effort. His Lecomte effort proves him him to be one of the better 3-year-olds on the trail at this point.