Who will win the Kentucky Derby? It could be long shot Confidence Game.

When betting favorite Orb won the 2013 Kentucky Derby, it began a stretch of six straight years in which short-priced horses claimed the first jewel of the Triple Crown. But the past four years have yielded some juicy payouts in the winner’s circle. Sure, a few disqualifications and extenuating circumstances led to some of those higher profits, yet Rich Strike’s surprising run for the roses at 80-1 odds last May rekindled my faith that there can be significant money made by wagering to win rather than just taking a big swing on trifecta or superfecta bets, in which bettors must select the first three or four finishers, in order. That’s why I am backing Confidence Game, 20-1 on the morning line, in this year’s Kentucky Derby at odds of 5-1 or better.

Confidence Game debuted as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs and has raced under the spires four times. He broke his maiden on the second try at the track, going six furlongs, then won an optional claiming race at 1 1/16 miles off a layoff in his fourth Churchill Downs race (and fifth race overall). On the Derby trail, he finished third in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans before winning the Grade II Rebel Stakes over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park, showings that qualified him for a spot in Saturday’s starting gate.

In the Rebel Stakes, his final prep race, Confidence Game covered the final three furlongs in 37.9 seconds — a tick under the benchmark set by Jennie Rees in her Final Fractions theory for Kentucky Derby winners — and the final furlong in 13 seconds flat, also a qualifying number under that theory. (Since 1990, 28 of 32 Kentucky Derby winners ran the final furlong of their final prep race in 13 seconds or less or the last three furlongs of that final race in 38 seconds or less.) That’s not bad, considering races over sloppy tracks tend to run slower than those on fast dirt.

However, in my opinion his performance in the Lecomte Stakes was his best to date. He earned a career-best pace figure to both the first call at one-half mile and the second call at three-quarters of a mile, with both figures significantly above par for the upcoming Derby. In fact, only Two Phil’s and Reincarnate have posted better career-best pace figures to those calls among the 20-horse field.

Speed to the second call — six furlongs, or three-quarters of a mile — is incredibly important in this race. Since 2013, when the Derby qualification points system debuted, just 3 of 10 winners were more than two lengths behind the leader at the three-quarters-of-a-mile mark: Orb in 2013 (14½ lengths off the lead), Country House in 2019 (4¼ lengths and won by disqualification) and Rich Strike last year (11½ lengths).

In addition to having speed, of course, a winning Kentucky Derby horse needs stamina to carry it for 10 furlongs. Because all of these horses are going 1¼ miles for the first time, the only way to attempt to gauge how suited they are for the distance is to look at their pedigrees, and Confidence Game has solid breeding throughout.

His sire, Candy Ride, went undefeated in six starts on both turf and dirt — and set a track record in the 1¼-mile Grade I Pacific Classic Stakes in 2003. Candy Ride also sired Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year. Confidence Game’s dam, Eblouissante, is a half sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, still the only filly or mare to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Overall, Confidence Game’s pedigree swings toward stamina more than speed, yet the high pace figures coming out of the Lecomte Stakes plus his desire to run up front early — he has been within 2½ lengths of the lead at the second call in five of his seven starts and always among the front half of the field — could pay dividends in the Run for the Roses.

There are other encouraging factors as well. Confidence Game is what handicapper Mark Cramer refers to as an overachiever — a horse that wins a race at 5-1 odds or better or hits the board (finishes in the top three) at odds of 9-1 or more. Confidence Game won the Rebel Stakes at 18-1 and an optional claiming race at 11-1. He also hit the board in another optional claiming race (finishing second at 10-1) and in his debut (third at 8-1) at robust odds.

Some will toss Confidence Game as a contender because of a 10-week layoff since the Rebel Stakes — since 1929, the longest layoff for any Kentucky Derby winner has been 49 days. To the skeptics, offer this: Keith Desormeaux, Confidence Game’s trainer, has produced a small positive return in 2023 ($0.03 for every $2 win wager through 64 races as of Monday), while over his career Desormeaux has produced a fine return on horses coming off a 45- to 90-day layoff ($1.22 per $2 win wager through 104 races as of Monday).

“He’s maturing the right way,” jockey James Graham told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “Every race he seems to have gotten better. As Keith says: ‘He’s not training for just one day. He’s training for the Triple Crown.’ I’m happy with a fresh horse going into the Derby.”

Confidence Game’s final workout of five furlongs in 59.0 seconds, the fastest of 54 horses that day, caused some interest in the betting markets. Circa Sports dropped its odds from 40-1 to 12-1, the Westgate SuperBook cut its odds from 40-1 to 14-1, and Caesars Sportsbook moved from 30-1 to 22-1. If this year’s Derby again offers an opportunity for a profitable win bet, Confidence Game feels like the horse to back.