Which 3 teams on FSU's schedule can give the Seminoles the hardest time (after LSU and Clemson)?

Florida State is expected to legitimately contend for an ACC championship, and perhaps more, in 2023. The Seminoles are returning a majority of their production from last year’s 10-3 team, and have added to the already talented roster with one of the best Transfer Portal hauls in the country.

The top challenges for FSU, on paper, will occur at the start of the season. FSU takes on LSU in the season opener and then travels to Clemson a few weeks later for what could be two Top 10 matchups in the first month of the season.

The ESPN Football Power Index has FSU as the No. 14 team nationally entering the season (recruiting results play a factor in this formula, but the Transfer Portal is a curveball that’s still being adjusted for in real time) while LSU is No. 3 and Clemson is at 8.

It feels fair to say that LSU and Clemson are the two teams with the most firepower to give FSU problems and present losses based on this schedule.

It’s reasonable to see FSU vying for an ACC title even if it goes 10-2, but a third loss (and a second in conference play) could make that task a little more dubious. With that in mind, I wanted to consider which three teams provide the toughest test on FSU’s schedule after the first two obvious opponents.

FSU should be viewed as a favorite against all three of these teams going into the season, but they should be viewed as opponents that could do a few things at high enough of a level to pull off an upset if FSU doesn't perform well. 

1. Duke, Oct. 21

FPI Rank: 53rd

Recruiting rankings probably hinder the FPI rank of a very solid Duke team. I think this group should be considered more than a middle-of-the-road ACC squad.

The Blue Devils went 9-4 last year. They return a legitimately good dual-threat QB in Riley Leonard, have one of the best OTs in the country (Graham Barton), some strong skill talent in the backfield (RB Jaquez Moore, RB Jordan Waters, and RB Jaylen Coleman combined for 1,500+ yards) and out wide (three leading receivers return).

There’s some quality on defense returning as well.

I think it’s more likely that Duke is again a good team this year rather than regressing to being mediocre. FSU gets Duke at home, but this is a team that can give you trouble.

At Florida, Nov. 25

FPI Rank: 18

It’s been a fairly disastrous offseason from Florida from the outside looking in. I’m not convinced that the team did enough in the Portal to adequately replace a first-round QB and multiple key pieces along its offensive line.

Yet it is a rivalry game, on the road. So the odds of this being easy are slim.

What Florida does have that grabs your attention is a strong RB duo (??Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne) and some promising young athletes on defense. DE Princely Umanmielen enjoyed a breakout campaign last year (9.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks), fellow DE Justus Boone showed promise in a limited role, and you still have big Desmond Watson in the middle.

There’s enough here to be an average SEC team, which will make for a challenging out for FSU.

At Pittsburgh, Nov. 4

FPI Rank: 35

Pittsburgh loses several key defenders, including first-round DT Calijah Kancey, LB SirVocea Dennis, and safeties Erick Hallett II and Brandon Hill.

Yet the Panthers add QB Phil Jurkovec (BC transfer) to the mix as he tries to get his NFL draft stock back in the fold. He should give them strong QB play with two promising rising juniors at receiver (Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means) as well as compact runner Rodney Hammond Jr., who should be considered a breakout candidate with workhorse Israel Abanikanda off to the NFL.

There should be enough firepower to catch your attention, even if coach Pat Narduzzi doesn’t prefer a progressive offensive approach.

Pitt will have a good chunk of the season to figure its new defensive personnel out. Early November in Pittsburgh could make for chilly conditions if this is a night game. And with this road game coming off another road trip at Wake Forest and before a contest against rival Miami, this has the feel of a trap game.

Which opponent, outside of LSU and Clemson, concerns you the most in 2023?