White Sox vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Dodgers' lineup has been less than stellar lately, but facing White Sox starter Lance Lynn could help. Meanwhile, Tony Gonsolin appears due for regression, but just how much will occur vs. a subpar Chicago side? Our MLB betting picks investigate.
The Chicago White Sox (29-38) head to Southern California for an interleague series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (37-29).
The NL West goliath will look to get back on track after a surprising run of poor performance in which they’ve won just three of their last 10 games. Looking at the MLB odds, the Dodgers are favored to do just that in Game 1 on Tuesday.
I’ve got my eye on the total rather than a side, as I believe this starting pitching matchup provides a strong opportunity in the betting market.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Dodgers on Tuesday, June 13.
White Sox vs Dodgers odds
White Sox vs Dodgers predictions
Chicago White Sox starter Lance Lynn has been blasted this season. He’s allowing a career-worst 10.6% barrel rate — a number well off his 5.6% career mark and an indicator that he simply doesn’t have it this year. His average fastball velocity of 92.7 mph is the lowest figure of his career, and his 8.8% BB-rate is the highest it’s been since 2018.
He faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is among the league’s best, even though they’ve hit a rough patch lately. They’re a curious case in that they’ve typically mashed righties this season — ranking fourth in wRC+ (113) and third in wOBA (.336) — but have fallen off a cliff lately, ranking 24th in wRC+ (73) and 25th in wOBA (.277).
I’d expect the Boys in Blue to get back on track at the plate sooner rather than later. They’re just as talented as always and aren’t dealing with any major injuries. Lynn offers a reprieve after they had to face difficult starters like Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole over the last 10 days, artificially dragging their numbers down.
Dodger starter Tony Gonsolin’s 2.21 ERA looks pretty at first sight, but it starts to fade once you see the 4.57 xERA and 4.47 FIP. Posting a career-high barrel rate and a career-low K-rate is not conducive to prolonged success.
He also typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, and that’s a concern because the Dodgers’ bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster this season, posting a 4.76 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
These two starting pitchers have combined to go 18-6 O/U across their 24 combined starts this season. I’ll be betting on yet another Over when they’re on the mound Tuesday.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
White Sox vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Over 8.5
Dodgers team total Over 4.5
Lynn 7+ hits allowed
As outlined above, I like this game to go Over the total, so I’m grabbing that for the first leg. The Over has cashed in four straight road games for the White Sox when Lynn is on the bump.
He has been an abomination on the mound this year and is facing one of the best lineups in the league in the Dodgers, who should return to form at the plate in a better matchup. I’ll therefore add Los Angeles’ team total Over 4.5 as the second leg. The Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter.
For the third leg, I’ll target Lynn’s hits allowed prop. He’s been getting hit very hard this season as his 10.6% barrel rate indicates, and that’s a problem against a Dodgers lineup that has a .780 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
When Lynn gets hit, it usually happens repeatedly. He’s allowed at least seven hits in five of his last seven starts, while the two misses have come against Detroit and Kansas City — two of the three worst teams against righties this season.
DraftKings is offering juicy +170 odds for Lynn to allow 7+ hits — a price that is too good for me to pass up. Let’s add that as our third leg.
That brings us to a three-pick SGP with odds of +340. I’m a fan of all three cashing as yet another Lynn blowup is a realistic outcome.
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White Sox vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The current spread lists the Dodgers between -200 and -225, depending on the book. Be sure to shop around.
The Dodgers do appear to be the correct side given that they’re facing a rocky starter in Lynn. They have been fantastic at home this season with a 20-10 record, while the White Sox have struggled on the road (12-21).
It should come as no surprise that the White Sox are a losing team when Lynn is on the mound — they’ve won just five of his 13 starts.
I’d be slightly concerned with Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin’s underlying numbers if he was facing a more difficult opponent. Chicago has been terrible against right-handed pitching the season, posting an 82 wRC+ (28th) and a .290 wOBA (28th). Their numbers over the last 10 days are nearly identical, as they have an 83 wRC+ and .291 wOBA — so we know what to expect from this squad.
The total opened at 8.5 before moving to 9 at some spots. I outlined above why I like the Over and would continue playing it at 9 — but I wouldn’t go further.
Weather is not expected to play a major factor, although there will be slight winds of 5.8 mph blowing out to right field during the later innings.
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Trend to know
These two starting pitchers have combined to go 18-6 O/U across their 24 total starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs Dodgers
White Sox vs Dodgers game info
Starting pitchers
Lance Lynn (4-6, 6.72 ERA): It’d be an understatement to say that Lynn has been struggling in 2023. The 36-year-old has a gruesome 6.72 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His 5.43 xERA and 5.30 FIP both indicate some positive regressions while still not being overly encouraging numbers. He’s made six starts in his career at Dodger Stadium and is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA.
Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 2.21 ERA): Gonsolin has been a major plus for a Los Angeles squad that has dealt with numerous starting pitcher injuries. His numbers do appear to be a bit phony, however, as his 4.57 xERA and 4.47 FIP are both two full runs above his actual ERA of 2.21. He’s allowing a career-high 7.7% barrel rate while posting a career-low 18.1% K-rate.
