Whitney fair odds: How to find value with Cody's Wish

There was no doubt about who was best in the Grade 1 Met Mile when Cody's Wish defeated three of his Whitney (G1) rivals by between 3 1/4 and 5 1/2 lengths. 

He gave four to six pounds to those rivals that day, and now the spread is only two to Charge It, as opposed to six, and is equal weight to both runner-up Zandon and third-place finisher White Abarrio.

Bettors made Cody's Wish 0.65-1, a touch above 3-5, that day, and last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner is 2-5 on the morning line to run his win streak to seven. I mostly agree with that price.

Is he likely to offer any value in the win pool? No. I have him at 3-5 and agree with New York Racing Association morning-line oddsmaker David Aragorna that he will be shorter than that. However, I do not think any other horse is likely to be worth betting either.

So what to do? Well, last Saturday's late Pick 5 paid $1,600 with three favorites winning, including champions Forte at 1-2 and Elite Power. Cody's Wish will be a shorter price than either of them, but I see him as even more a cinch than those other two. Of course, the wagering public will too. But Cody's Wish is worth hanging our hat on because of the two options to use him in a Pick 5, the standard late variety plus the cross-country and cross-breed sequence that will include the Hambletonian from Meadowlands.

Which, of course, means I think he will have no trouble navigating the 1 1/8 miles of the Whitney. Yes, it's a mild concern that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has not been bullish on it since a couple failed attempts earlier in his career. But the win in the Dirt Mile came around two turns on a speed-favoring Keeneland main track, and the Met Mile against half this field was complete destruction. So I just don't see the extra furlong and turn versus two months ago making much of a difference.