Who is the key in Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs?

Before his scratch in the Preakness Stakes, First Mission was set to run as either the favorite or second choice in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Although the start did not pan out, he has another chance to become a top dirt router if he can win the Grade 2, $600,000 Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday.   

First Mission’s comeback win at Keeneland on Oct. 14 felt average, but he receives the benefit of the doubt for the return, especially because of the major traffic problems encountered on the far turn and stretch run. 

Because of the slow pace, the field crowded together in the Keeneland optional claimer featuring First Mission. With a wall of horses right in front of him on the far turn, First Mission waited along the inside and then shifted to the middle, but he had no way to rally without tipping wide.  

Jockey Luis Saez took First Mission five wide in the stretch, but the initial block by the wall of horses and constant change in direction likely hurt his momentum. First Mission eventually did reach the front, but then he needed to outkick Commandperformance and Creative Minister to his inside while holding off a closing Cooke Creek on the outside.

First Mission won in the end, but the margin over Commandperformance and Cooke Creek was only a neck, with half a length back to Creative Minister in fourth. In most cases, a blanket finish on dirt involving a crowded group of horses hints at a race without great quality. 

Commandperformance went on to win his next start in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs on Nov. 11. But Cooke Creek and Creative Minister were in that same race and ran only fifth and sixth.

Given the long layoff, maybe First Mission needed the return race for fitness. As described above, he also had traffic problems at a crucial part of the race.

With those two points in mind, First Mission deserves the benefit of the doubt from bettors on Friday for barely winning an optional claimer, especially now that he is more fit in his second start off the break.

For a suggested trifecta wheel, the three horses to use underneath First Mission are Il Miracolo, Gasoline and Straight Arrow.

Il Miracolo lost the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland by a head to O’Connor. Before that race, Il Miracolo flattened out to a distant third in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing while losing by 6 1/2 lengths to Saudi Crown, but that run is forgivable considering the quality of Saudi Crown.

Gasoline carries a two-race win streak after a long layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher. He won his local return race on Sept. 21 in an allowance optional claimer by only a neck and went on to crush his opponents in another local optional-claiming race on Nov. 4 by 5 1/4 lengths over Giant Game in second.

First Mission, Il Miracolo and Gasoline will attract a good amount of attention. In contrast, the gelding Straight Arrow might end up relatively ignored because most of his races came in New York-bred restricted races.

Straight Arrow has shown improvement in his last two starts. He won an optional-claiming allowance race at Aqueduct by nine lengths on Oct. 15 and then took the Empire Classic Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths only two weeks later.

His last two speed figures of 118 and 121 on TimeformUS line up well with the runners in this race. The favorite First Mission ran a 109 in his slow return effort, although he does show a 119 for his Lexington Stakes (G3) effort.

Il Miracolo shows a 122 on TimeformUS for his runner-up finish in the Pennsylvania Derby, and Gasoline ran a 119 for his recent optional-claiming allowance win.

Even though First Mission does not scare anyone with his figures, he owns more upside given his Lexington Stakes win earlier in the year and the fact that he came off a six-month layoff to finish first in his return. 

Most horses move forward in their second start off the bench, and it just feels like First Mission is headed toward big races against top horses. He should prove himself in this race as he steps forward into Grade 1s.

First Mission stands as the key in the trifecta below.  

Win: 2 (at 8-5 or longer)

Trifecta wheel: 2 over 1,3,4 over 1,3,4