Why Mets, Dodgers over-performed preseason odds and projections while Nationals, Tigers underperformed

The Cubs took a step back a couple of years ago, and finished below.500 in both 2021 and 2022 for the first time since 2014. After a surprisingly good 2023 in which they finished just a game out of a playoff spot, they're heading into the 2024 season with decent projections and playoff odds. Also new in Chicago is the skipper, as Craig Counsell has…

One of the best weekends on the entire football calendar has arrived with the NFL's Divisional Round matchups slated to take place on Saturday and Sunday. While Super Wild Card Weekend provides more games, the Divisional Round usually delivers better quality with all the best teams in action. The class of both conferences will get things started on…

Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together their NFL Divisional Round expert picks based on the best NFL odds. The NFL postseason delivered one heck of an opening salvo over Wild Card Weekend. And we could be in store for another epic weekend in the Divisional Round. Kicking off on Saturday, the matchups feature both top seeds as substantial…

This page tracks the odds to win 2023 MLB divisional odds The graphs are generated by averaging the latest odds from online sportsbooks This page tracks the odds to win the six MLB divisional races in the 2023 season. The 2023 MLB Division odds tracker is separated into six parts corresponding to the six divisions. Use the links below to navigate…

After a pair of trades involving the Portland Trail Blazers sent Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks and Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, what can we expect during the 2023-24 NBA season? My stats-based win projections are back to help answer that question, at least during the regular season. One of the biggest challenges for statistical…

The MLB playoffs are set to begin, with eight teams ready to battle it out in the Wild Card round starting today. Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies proved that even the last Wild Card team has a chance to make a run, as anything can happen in October. Before the games begin, let's take a look at what Vegas has to say about the odds on who will…

October is a special month. Football is in full swing, hockey and basketball get underway, and the baseball playoffs are in session. After 162 grueling regular season games, 18 teams have been eliminated. 12 remain in the fight for the World Series. Four teams have received a bye to the divisional series, while eight teams will meet in the…

With ten straight wins and 14 wins in their last 15 games, the Los Angeles Dodgers have now established a double-digit lead in the NL West. Tonight, they will look to keep things rolling by breaking out the brooms against Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers. Yesterday, the Dodgers (73-46, 40-20 home) picked up the series win and their ninth…

When the Milwaukee Brewers (62-54) and Chicago White Sox (47-69) match up in the series opener at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday, August 11, Corbin Burnes will get the ball for the Brewers, while the White Sox will send Michael Kopech to the hill. The game will begin at 8:10 PM ET. Oddsmakers list the Brewers as -160 moneyline favorites, while…

Like it or not (I like it! ), the Chicago Cubs are officially going for it in 2023. They held onto all their key pieces through the deadline, they did some buying, and they won their first game after the deadline against the first-place Cincinnati Reds. So it feels appropriate, then, to reset our expectations with a look at the Cubs' playoff odds,…

Monday's contest at T-Mobile Park has the Milwaukee Brewers (11-5) matching up with the Seattle Mariners (8-8) at 9:40 PM (on April 17). Our computer prediction projects a 5-3 win for the Brewers, who is a slight favorite based on our model. The probable pitchers are Corbin Burnes (1-1) for the Milwaukee Brewers and Chris Flexen (0-2) for the…

A massive 14-game MLB slate awaits us on this beautiful Monday to pick through and find some good value on the BetQL model. BetQL is your one-stop destination for live MLB betting odds, best bets from our MLB model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles, and much more. The BetQL MLB model has hit 57 percent of its bets in…

The 2023 MLB season starts on Thursday, and MLB odds again expect the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros to be the best teams in the league, with both clubs given an MLB-high Over/Under line of 95.5 wins this year. The 2023 MLB season starts Thursday with a whole slew of offseason trades, signings, and new MLB rule changes that have altered the…

After a frenetic offseason that saw numerous star players change uniforms and teams invest billions of dollars in free agents to upgrade their rosters, the dust has settled. We have a good sense of where teams stand heading into the 2023 MLB season. That makes it a viable time to make 2023 MLB futures bets, as we can reasonably forecast how the…

Last week, we published our playoff odds for the 2023 season. Those odds contain a ton of interesting bells and whistles, from win distributions to chances of receiving a playoff bye. At their core, however, they're based on one number: win totals. Win totals determine who makes the playoffs, so our projections, at their core, are a machine for…

Earlier this week, as is tradition, FanGraphs founder David Appelman went into his garage, turned off all the lights except for some candles, and performed a dark and arcane ritual. The words were carefully chosen and spoken precisely, with any variation promising disaster. Then he went back inside, pushed a few buttons on his computer, and now we…

Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, there's still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater…

The champagne has barely begun to dry in the Astros' locker room, and already bettors are looking ahead to the future. The Astros claimed their second World Series title in six years, defeating the underdog Phillies 4-1 in Game 6 to win the series four games to two. But now, it's time for gamblers to start looking ahead to who will win the title in…

The Colorado Rockies (61-80) will look to Ryan McMahon, currently on a two-game homer streak, against the Chicago White Sox (72-69) at 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago's (to win) Michael Kopech and Colorado's () Chad Kuhl will be the starting pitchers. This article references betting data valid as of September 13, 2022 at…

The Milwaukee Brewers (71-63) square off against the Colorado Rockies (57-79) on Tuesday at Coors Field, at 8:40 PM ET. Milwaukee's (to win) Brandon Woodruff and Colorado's () Chad Kuhl will start this matchup. The betting trends in what follows reflect odds as of September 6, 2022 at 7:14 AM ET. Check out the table below for the most up-to-date…

Ketel Marte sits at 98 hits, and will look for his 100th when his Arizona Diamondbacks (56-67) meet the Chicago White Sox (63-62) at 8:10 PM ET on Friday. Chicago's (to win) Johnny Cueto starts versus Arizona's () Tommy Henry. The insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of August 26, 2022 at 7:13 PM ET. Head to the table below for the…

The Milwaukee Brewers were projected to finish third in the National League Central in 2021, but ended up taking home the division title with 95 wins. The top three in the rotation led the way, highlighted by SP Corbin Burnes and his Cy Young Award. No huge moves were made during the offseason, but OF Hunter Renfroe and OF Andrew McCutchen were…

With the lockout now over and baseball getting back to the business of actually playing the game, the Chicago White Sox can now begin defense of their American League Central crown. In doing so, oddsmakers not only like their chances of repeating as division champs but think highly of them for a World Series title as well. WynnBet is very bullish…

Alongside my updated 2020 MLB projections, I also provided my World Series value plays, compared to the currently listed odds at PointsBet. I have a World Series futures wager on each of the six teams in bold, below - three in the AL and three in the NL - after recently adding futures on both the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays - who I project…