Winning Post delivers the good oil

Poifect (Race 4) is a talented Pierro mare who’ll appreciate rising to 1600 metres second-up. Her fresh run (when heavily backed) indicated she’s returned to racing in great order. While she ran home well late, her fitness gave out after racing wide over the 1400m. With that run behind her, in stakes company, she’ll be ready to win.

VALUE BET

With many of his rivals drawn poorly in a huge field (with a very short run to the first corner), the honest Future History (Race 7) looks likely to get the benefit of a great run in transit and he has the quality to turn in a terrific performance. The six-year-old has been patiently guided through his first Australian campaign and Craig Williams climbs aboard for the first time. It looks a good booking.

MURRAY BRIDGE - PAUL RICHARDS

BET OF THE DAY

Bellinger (Race 8) should appreciate the drop from 60.5kg to 57kg and the addition of top senior rider Todd Pannell. Bellinger has finished third in both runs this time in, more recently closing well behind subsequent winner Sixteen Reasons, with capable apprentice Laura Lafferty on board. With the lighter impost, change in hoop and good draw (five), he gets his chance to break through.

VALUE BET

David Jolly’s Hongbao (Race 6) looks set for a good first-up showing. He cruised to the line with plenty in hand when third in a jumpout at Strathalbyn on September 21, suggesting he’s in good order. Hongbao tends to concede a start, but there’s plenty of speed here and the race could be run to suit a closer. Hongbao will carry 58kg after the claim for Hannah Edgley. He carried 65kg to victory at this track back in May.

READY TO WIN

Michael Hickmott is expecting an improved showing from the capable Wine Barron (Race 10). “He didn’t have the best of luck first-up (a close fourth). He’s trained on and I think he’ll appreciate Todd Pannell taking over in the saddle,” he said. Wine Barron has only raced six times, finishing in the placings on four occasions. The latest of those was a second in listed company to the honest Party Princess.

EAGLE FARM - CARL DI IORIO

BET OF THE DAY

Desert Icon (Race 8) is hard to bet against in the listed Queensland Cup (2400m). Chris Waller’s import has finished top-four six times from 10 starts this campaign, exclusively in Group 3 and listed grade. This weekend’s race appears easier than those assignments. He has raced twice in Queensland – for second in the Ipswich Cup (2150m) and fourth in the Caloundra Cup (2400m).

STABLE CHANGES

Ex-Victorians He’s Heaven (Race 6) and Eagles Crag (Race 7) are capable of making winning debuts for Queensland stables. He’s Heaven, who won at listed level for Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman, has underperformed in his past two 1200-metre starts in the Sale Quality and Creswick Stakes. His introduction to Brisbane racing for Desleigh Forster in a benchmark 75 handicap over 1200 metres will be much easier. Eagles Crag, formerly trained at Ballarat by Dan O’Sullivan and before him Archie Alexander, remains with OTI Racing, but is now in the care of Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted. His three wins have all been over 1600 metres and he looks well-placed in Saturday’s Class 3 event over 1500 metres, under set-weights conditions.

ROSEHILL - JOEL MARSHALL

BET OF THE DAY

Mission Phoenix (Race 3) bounced back to form last start after a plain effort at his previous outing. He was held-up early in the straight then couldn’t quicken as well as the winner, who had 5½kg less, but beat the rest comfortably. He can control this from in front now that he’s out to 2000 metres and should have no excuses.

VALUE BET

Ducasse (Race 6) is ready to win and although things have been made harder for him with Encap a late entry for the Tapp-Craig, I’ll stick with him on an each-way basis. Ducasse has had no luck this time in and should have finished alongside Encap in the Up And Coming, before running on strongly from way too far back in the Ming Dynasty won by that horse. With better luck Ducasse can go close.

ROUGHIE

Rainbiel (Race 9) jumped better and stuck to her task well second-up after a forgive run fresh and, although she rises in class for this, she is worth thought at odds. She has always been talented and now with Joe Pride, who has a habit of taking these mares to the next level. She can measure up to stakes grade.

Race 10 - 10. Wine Barron (Murray Bridge)

Race 9 - 9. Rainbiel (Rosehill)