World Series long shots: Model running 100k simulated seasons says Twins, Phillies are worth a look
A new playoff format introduced this season gives two extra teams a shot at going deep into the postseason. Six teams from both leagues now make the playoffs, with the top two division winners earning byes into the Divisional Round. Yes, that’s right — there will be no more winner-take-all Wild Card games.
The new format will create more variance but it also helps a team that finishes second in their division and inconveniently has the second most wins in the league (ex. the Dodgers in 2021). Baseball is so random, however, that the Braves — with the worst record among National League playoff teams last year — ended up winning it all. The randomness of this league needs to be taken into account and should make you even more price sensitive when placing future bets that don’t pay out for over six months.
I’ve created a player projection model for all pitchers and hitters. I then combined those players into their respective teams and projected playing time. My model is then able to simulate the entire season and playoffs 100,000 times, based on each team’s projected strength or projected winning percentage.
One word before we dive in: the World Series futures market has very little value. My biggest edge in the market currently is just 2.1%. My strategy for attacking these edges is to get a small fraction of a bet on a few and certainly not spray the board. Again, the futures market is open all year long and there will be plenty of opportunities to jump on teams throughout the season.
Best Bets
Minnesota Twins to win World Series +5000 odds at BetMGM (risk 0.1 units)
- Projected World Series Odds: 3.6%
Here I am selling my soul to the Minnesota Twins after not wanting to get involved, but my model believes they’re much closer to a playoff team than most are giving them credit for. These are smaller plays on the division and pennant odds but again, the “make the playoffs” edge is huge.
Offense
The Twins surprised the baseball world by landing Carlos Correa and cementing the front office’s decision to try and win again this season. The offense should be very good — they’re a top 10 offense in my model and you won’t find many holes up and down this lineup, as almost all of their projected starters are above average (according to my projections).
The key for the offense (and defense) will be the health of Byron Buxton. When healthy, Buxton is one of the most valuable players in baseball and we saw the best version of him last season. In just 61 games, Buxton posted a 4.2 fWAR; he was dominant at the plate, on the base paths, and in center field. The issue is that he hasn’t played more than 87 games since 2017. Luis Arráez and Alex Kirilloff are two young stars in the making; if they can take a leap in 2022, this lineup should be fantastic.
Pitching
As is usual with teams showing value in my model, one area that is likely lacking is pitching… and the Twins are no different. Trading for Sonny Gray should give them a boost, as Kenta Maeda is expected to miss the entire season, but after Gray, the rotation is a little messy. Joe Ryan was named your Opening Day starter and while he has just over 26.2 innings in the majors, he was quite impressive in those innings. His xERA during that span was just 2.99. He has the minor-league track record to be a good MLB starter but there’s certainly a question of if he can do it in his first full season.
Bailey Ober is the next best arm in the rotation; he’s another young arm who debuted last year and held his own. After that, we are currently looking at Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If they can find 150 innings from each of them while just not being horrible, that’s probably a win for this Twins organization. They’ll be relying on Gray and the young arms but if they can perform to expectations, the Twins should be in the middle of a playoff race come September.
Defense
I already spoke about Buxton’s excellence in the outfield but Max Kepler is really good defender, as well. The addition of Correa gives them one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, and having two of the best defenders in the league at centerfield and shortstop is a good starting point. The rest of the team, however, lacks defensive potential. Even with three studs in the field, the Twins rate as an average defensive team.
Overall, the Twins will need their starting pitching to step up. If injuries occur, definitely early in the season, this could be an early loser — but if the young arms can step up and make a name for themselves, I like our chances.
San Francisco Giants to win World Series +2500 (risk 0.1 units)
- Projected World Series Odds: 5.0%
The Giants came out of nowhere last season to win 107 games and take the NL West title before falling to the Dodgers in the Divisional Round. Yes, Buster Posey retired and Kevin Gausman is now in Toronto, but this is a team that won 107 games last year, and they’re projected to be good again this year — while having possibly the best coaching staff and front office in baseball — and they’re 25/1? That seems off to me.
Offense
The loss of Buster Posey will certainly be a big one, but the Giants’ platoon approach should allow them to have a top 10 offense this season. Maybe it’s easier to think of this Giants team as similar to the Rays — they love to take advantage of platoons (but they have much deeper pockets than Tampa). Unfortunately, the Giants are a little banged up in spring training, but we are talking season long futures here and my model expects more big things from this Giants offense in 2022.
Pitching
The pitching has one of the highest ceilings in baseball but because of injury concerns, the floor is also pretty low. Carlos Rodón was the splash acquisition in the offseason, and he projects to be a top 10 pitcher in 2022. The problem with Rodón, however, is that throwing 150 innings would be quite a milestone for him, as he hasn’t done so since 2016. Alex Wood has dealt with injury issues in the past, but the Giants managed him well, as he threw his most innings since 2018 and looked pretty good doing it. Logan Webb is the surest piece in this rotation and is quite good. We round out the back of the rotation with Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Cobb — both had bounce back seasons in a big way with San Francisco and the Los Angeles Angels, respectively, in 2020. If the rotation stays healthy, they can be Top 5 in MLB, but that’s a big “if.”
Defense
This is an area where my model believes the Giants aren’t getting enough credit from the market. The Giants rate as a top 5 defensive team in my model, and while it’s true defensive metrics can be noisy, the Giants have a good amount of proven defenders on the roster this year. Led by Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski, the Giants were 5th in outs above average last year. Crawford is one of the best defenders in all of baseball and there is no reason to believe a major drop off is likely to occur.
I mentioned this earlier, but this team has been built on a lot of the same principles that the Rays’ success for the past decade-plus have been built on and they have much deeper pockets. With how quickly things have turned around in San Francisco the past two seasons, they might be ahead of the Rays at this point.
Philadelphia Phillies to win World Series +3000 (risk 0.1 units)
- Projected World Series Odds: 4.3%
If you have consumed any baseball content involving the Phillies the last few weeks, you’ve probably heard how they’re going to have one of the worst defensive teams of all-time. And that might be true. However, my model thinks that’s taking away from what might be a top 10 offense as well as a strong top end of the starting rotation. The Mets stole the offseason buzz in the NL East with the signing of Max Scherzer and obviously the Braves are defending World Series champions… but do not sleep on this Phillies team.
Offense
The bottom of the lineup isn’t incredible but the top half is outstanding. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos should provide plenty of pop around reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. Oh yeah, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins are up there, too. They should hit a ton of homers, with four of the top five spots in this lineup capable of 30 (maybe 40) if they’re healthy. Another aspect of this lineup that may be undervalued is how often they walk. With the exception of Castellanos, the rest of the named hitters above all walk at an above average rate. On top of their bats being hard enough for a pitcher to get through, their eyes will be just as tough, leading to tired arms and more calls to the bullpen for opposing teams.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola headline this starting rotation but my model thinks there are some intriguing options behind them. Zach Eflin and Kyle Gibson project around average arms in my model but the arm I’m most interested in is Ranger Suárez, who split time as a starter and reliever last season and was impressive in both roles. My model projects Suárez as an above average arm and if he can give a full season of above average starts behind Wheeler and Nola, Philadelphia should certainly have enough starting pitching to make a run at the NL East.
Unfortunately, the Phillies bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball for years and no matter how good your starting pitching is, if you have a bad bullpen, you’re going to lose a lot of games you shouldn’t. The Phillies, however, have made some nice moves in the bullpen to hopefully right the course here. The Phillies signed Corey Knebel to be their closer and reinforced the back end with Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand. Knebel only threw 25 innings for the Dodgers last season but returned to his old self; he should be able to close out some wins for the Phillies this season. Familia had a bounce back year with the Mets last season and replicated success in Philadelphia would certainly help. Hand is the wild card. He has fallen off a cliff since his days in Cleveland but is a nice buy-low piece for this Phillies bullpen if he can find any of his old stuff in his left arm. The pitching staff grades out closer to average in my model but there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the bullpen.
Defense
If you were wondering if everyone screaming from the rooftops about how bad this Phillies defense will be was an overreaction… it’s not. The Phillies grade out as the worst defensive team in all of baseball in my model and it’s not even close. The difference between the Phillies and the next worst team (Baltimore) is the same as Baltimore to the 16th ranked team (Pittsburgh). Most will point to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as being horrible fielders but my model thinks the biggest issue is shortstop Didi Gregorius. Gregorius rated last in the majors among qualified shortstops in outs above average last year with -18. The second worst shortstop? Jazz Chisholm Jr. with -10. Being that bad defensively at a premier defensive position like shortstop certainly puts a limit on how well you’re able to prevent runs.
As with most teams that have value in the preseason, the Phillies have plenty of flaws. The backend of the rotation has questions, the bullpen too, and the defense is just… bad. But they have a great offense and the top of the rotation could be very good. The Dodgers, Mets, and Padres are sucking a lot of value out of the market, according to my model, so these second-tier NL contenders are where to strike. If the Phillies can see some positive variance, they can certainly make a run in October.
