York trends analysis best bet: Strong each-way shout for Austrian Theory in Clipper Stakes

Day two at York's Ebor Festival and racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach focuses his trends-based analysis on the Clipper Handicap Stakes (1500) on Thursday, August 24.

2023-08-23York trends analysis best bet: Strong each-way shout for Austrian Theory in Clipper Stakes

15:00 (York) Clipper Handicap (1 mile)

Our each-way pick on day one, Alligator Alley, was just beaten into second, so we have started the Ebor Festival well.

The trends analysis is based upon the historic trends below and they will hopefully reduce the field of twenty runners to a more manageable number:

19/20 - Had won 2 or more times before

18/20 - Winning distance of 2 lengths or less

15/20 - Returned 15/2 or bigger in the betting

15/20 - Aged 3 or 4 years-old

14/20 - Ran at Ascot (4), Sandown (3), Goodwood (5) or Newmarket (2) last time out

14/20 - Had 4 or more runs already that season

13/20 - Unplaced last time out

14/20 - Won from stall 12 or lower

13/20 - Carried 9-2 or less

3/20 - Won by the David O'Meara stable (3 of the last 10)

2/20 - Won by the Hills (Barry/Charlie) stable

2/20 - Winning favourites

The last 11 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old (9 of last 11 aged 4 or 5)

The trends reduced the runners to four.

Eilean Dubh has won over course and distance twice, but his highest winning mark is off three pounds lower than this.

Not sure if there is scope to improve by that much, but his jockey has won on him several times. His mid-division running style also means he will need some luck in running.

Darkness is a regular runner in these big field handicaps and is usually very consistent.

He has only won once since his two year old season, when he won three times including at Listed level.

He remains high in the handicap due to him placing in these high value handicaps. His trainer has a strong race record, but I expect that Darkness may have to settle for a place again.

Austrian Theory is one of two Charlie Johnston trained runners in the shortlist and has won off a higher mark and placed second off 104.

His front running style and low draw is an advantage at York over this trip. His three wins have all been on good to firm going, so conditions are perfect for a big run.

The Gatekeeper is the other Johnston runner and was second in the Golden Mile at Goodwood, beating Darkness into fourth and Eilean Dubh finished 19th.

He has not won further than seven furlongs but has only been tried over this trip three times finishing second twice. My main concern is he is at his best with some cut and has flopped badly twice on good to firm.

This like all Heritage Handicap races is very hard to predict, but basing the selection process on the trends analysis I am suggesting an each way bet on Austrian Theory.

Hopefully he will get his good to firm surface and can lead from stalls to winning post.