Mets vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

17 April 2023

While Dustin May has put forth three solid performances for the Dodgers this season, he doesn't have a ton of strikeout stuff and many of his swing-and-miss numbers are down from his career marks. Read more in our MLB betting picks below.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets have won four straight games ahead of this three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers that begins Monday night.

Both squads currently reside in second place in their respective divisions as the Mets are two games back of the Braves while the Dodgers are a single game behind the Diamondbacks.

David Peterson will be on the mound during the opener for the Mets while Dustin May gets the nod for the Dodgers.

Mets vs Dodgers odds

Mets vs Dodgers predictions

For Monday’s best bet between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, I’ll be taking a look at Dodgers starter Dustin May’s strikeout prop. It’s currently listed at 4.5 with the MLB odds juiced slightly to the Under.

After breaking through in limited action as a 21-year-old during the 2019 season, May simply hasn’t been on the mound often enough for bettors to compile enough data on his performance to feel too confident about his prospects in 2023 and going forwards.

What I’ve personally seen is that May is a very talented pitcher who will make a big impact on his team when healthy, and that’s been the case thus far as his stellar 1.47 ERA through three starts testifies.

His peripherals outside of that great ERA are a bit concerning, however. His strikeout rate of 17.6% is much lower than his career 23.3% rate, while his 10.3% walk rate is well above his 7.4% career mark. In other words, he’s walking too many batters while striking out too few.

It’s entirely possible these ratios stabilize closer to career norms as he becomes more acquainted with being a regular part of the rotation. After all, he’s never thrown more than 56 innings in a season and has had a long road back to health after tearing his UCL during the 2021 season.

Still, there’s enough reason for concern that I’m bearish on his strikeout potential until proven otherwise.

One predictor of strikeouts that I like to look at is swinging strike percentage — and May’s performance there this season is quite startling. His 7.4% swinging strike percentage is extremely low and is down from 12.9% a year ago and 10% for his career.

I’m targeting May to go Under 4.5 strikeouts against a Mets lineup that strikes out at the third-lowest rate in baseball (18.2%). May’s gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in two of his three starts this season and is posting the lowest swinging strike rate of his career.

My best bet: Dustin May Under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

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Mets vs Dodgers moneyline analysis

The Dodgers currently range from a -160 to -165 favorite depending on the book, while the best price available on the Mets as an underdog is +145 at WynnBET.

The Mets enter this game having won four straight games, although it’s worth pointing out that the last three of those came against the lowly Oakland A’s. They have typically performed well during Game 1 of a series, posting a 41-18 record across their last 59 such games.

While Drew Peterson hasn’t found much success this season, the Dodgers have lost four straight games when facing a left-handed starter. Their stats are noticeably depressed against southpaws, as their 104 wRC+ and .341 wOBA leave a tad to be desired considering this team crushes right-handed pitching.

Betting against the Dodgers at home has been a dicey proposition, however, as the boys in blue are 91-34 in their last 125 home games. Looking back at the history between these two teams, L.A. has gotten the upper hand with a 47-22 record across the last 69 meetings.

Mets vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 8.5 across the board. One factor to monitor closely in this matchup is the weather and current forecasts call for sustained winds of 13.9 mph blowing out to right-center, which would tend to favor more home run balls than expected.

May’s fly ball percentage of 38.8% is way above his career number of 27.7%, and it’s not exactly what you’d like to see given the winds in the forecast. So far, none of those fly balls have gone for home runs, although perhaps it’s only a matter of time.

The Mets’ lineup hasn’t been particularly dangerous so far this season, ranking 13th in wRC+ (103) and 15th in wOBA (.323).

On the other side of things, Peterson sports an ugly 4.91 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. One of his main problems has been a sky-high 11.9% walk rate and that may continue considering he has had a propensity for issuing free passes in his career, evidenced by his 10.8% career walk rate.

His fly-ball rate of 22% is a new career low, down from 26.9% a year ago. He’ll be facing off against a watered-down Dodgers lineup now that star catcher Will Smith hit the injured list with a concussion.

Mets vs Dodgers game info

Mets vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (0-2, 4.91 ERA): The left-hander has pitched decently in two of his outings this season but was tagged for five earned runs across just four innings against the Brewers in his second start of the year. One issue thus far is that he’s been unable to pitch deep into ball games, failing to last into the sixth inning in any of his three starts while averaging just 4 2/3 innings pitched.

Dustin May (1-1, 1.47 ERA): May sure has been a sight for sore eyes as he’s stepped up in a big way for an injury-riddled Dodgers rotation. He’s allowed a total of just three earned runs across his first three starts to the season, although his 3.38 xERA and 3.16 FIP both lag behind his actual ERA. He’ll likely need to improve both his 17.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate to maintain his success in the big leagues.