MNF Week 1 Best Bets: Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Bills vs. Jets
The NFL is back and Mondays are no longer the worst day of the week. DraftKings Sportsbook is here to make this special night even more special. Check out the NFL best bets for Monday Night Football return — an epic Week 1 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-112)
There is always hype surrounding the New York Jets at the beginning of a season. They’re a New York team after all. This season the hype is warranted. The Jets defense was a top-5 unit last season, and they’re offense could be just as good this season. Their star running backs, plural, are healthy and so is their offensive line. Chris Garrett was a stud wide receiver as a rookie and that was with weak quarterbacks that were inadequately protected by poor offensive line play. One more thing, the Jets made a slight upgrade at QB by adding Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers along with his former Green Bay offensive coordinator. The hype is real.
The hype is real in Buffalo, too. This 2023 Bills might be the best iteration during the Josh Allen era. The offense added weapons at running back by signing Damien Harris and the always durable Latavius Murray to complement 2022 second-round pick James Cook. They drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round to give them one of the most formidable tight end combos in the league (TE Dawson Knox was a Pro Bowler in 2022). And the receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are among the best 1-2 punches in the AFC, if not the NFL.
It doesn’t stop there. Buffalo’s defense could be the best in the league. Last season, the Bills were without several superstars. Elite CB Tre’Davious White only played in six games last season after tearing his ACL in 2021. Von Miller was limited to 11 games. He’ll miss Week 1 vs. the Jets, but Buffalo’s pass rush should be just fine with the addition of star pass rusher Leonard Floyd.
Against most teams, Rodgers and the new offense could gel enough in Week 1 to get a win. The Bills aren’t most teams. The combination of an elite offense and defense will be too much for the new-look Jets. New York’s defense will likely do their part in limiting this high powered attack, just as they did in 2022, but ultimately the Bills will come out on top. Round 2 could be a different story, but the first matchup goes to the defending AFC East Champions.
First Half Under 23.5 (-105)
These teams are stacked. Both offenses can light up the scoreboard. Both defenses can turn the lights out on the best of offenses. Will it be a shoot out or a shutout? If there are any question marks in this matchup, then it’s on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo is explosive and implosive. Josh Allen is no stranger to mistakes or aggressive decisions that end drives without points. Those flaws can be exploited by top-tier defense. The Jets held Buffalo to 17 points in their Week 9 home win last season and 20 points in their Week 14 loss at Buffalo. In the win, the Jets held Allen to a 46.8 QB Rating.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers didn’t look like a spring chicken last season. He’ll be fine in the long run, but in Week 1, it’s a different story. Rodgers might be fine by the second half, but he might not be. It could take several weeks for the New York offense to gel. Let’s not forget the Packers’ opening game of the 2021 season. The Saints throttle the Packers 38-3. Disheveled do-rag donning Aaron Rodgers memes flooded the internet. In the end, the Packers nearly won the Super Bowl, but Week 1 was ugly. Week 1 might work out, but it’s hard to imagine that these offenses are ready for these defenses.
First TD Scorer — Latavius Murray +4000
Daily Fantasy players loathe Lat Murray. He’s a poacher or gets poached. Anyone that’s watched Murray knows that he’s talented. He’s not elite but he’s an above-average back. The problem is that he’s only earned 200 carries twice in his career (266 carries for 1,066 yards in 2015). Across his 10-year career, he’s average 4.2 yards per carry. That’s respectable. Last season, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 12 games for the Broncos. The 33-year-old still has gas in the tank and the Bills agree as evident by Murray making the final 53-man roster.
The question is the probability of a TD. It’s a long shot, but who wants to make all 50/50 bets? James Cook won’t likely have a goal line role. That leaves Damien Harris. That’s a concern, but why would the Bills keep Latavius Murray if they weren’t going to use him? The Bills run a pass-heavy offense that doesn’t need three running backs, especially 33-year-old one dimensional RBs. The hunch is that Murray will have a bigger role than expected, and possibly the Bills want Josh Allen to dial back the scrambling and rush attempts. If that’s the case, then Week 1 is the time to cash in on Murray plunging the ball into the endzone first.
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