Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction, Pick & Odds: AFC Championship Game
With a trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl up for grabs, the Baltimore Ravens host the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship, and our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction based on the best NFL odds expects the heavyweight matchup to deliver.
To be the best, you have to beat the best. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens certainly know that when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.
This game marks the first time in NFL history that two former league MVPs under 30 years old face off in the postseason. It's also the first postseason meeting between those star QBs, with Mahomes holding a 3-1 advantage in the all-time series but Jackson - the Super Bowl MVP odds favorite - winning the last meeting when they faced off in Baltimore back in 2021.
The Ravens, who rank second among the Super Bowl odds favorites, are hosting the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history and hoping the crowd will be a factor on Sunday. But will that be enough to defeat a Chiefs team getting hot at the right time?
As part of our Conference Championship Odds breakdown and to accompany our Super Bowl predictions, here is our best Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction: AFC Championship
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 field goals (-105 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There's been much debate about how good Baltimore's defense truly is so far this week. While the Ravens rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA and among the league leaders in EPA, the counterargument appears to be the uninspiring list of opposing quarterbacks. In truth, both arguments carry some weight.
No defense is good enough to stop the league's best quarterback. Mahomes will absolutely put up numbers on Sunday, and likely push his team down the field for quality drives. I just believe Baltimore's top-ranked scoring defense will rise to the occasion in the red zone, where the team ranks second in the league with a 40.8% touchdown rate allowed.
That means Andy Reid might opt to settle for multiple field goals in this one, especially considering Harrison Butker is arguably the NFL's second-best kicker. Butker went 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts in 2023, hitting the Over on this prop during 10 of his 17 games.
This Over has gone from +100 to as short as -127 at some of our NFL prop betting sites, so it's worth taking advantage of this -105 value through ESPN BET.
Ravens -2.5 first half (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This was my pick earlier in the week, and while the spread has been juiced a bit at most of our best sportsbooks, I still like betting on the Ravens at anything below a field goal in the first half.
The Ravens are typically a team that comes out hot during the Jackson era. Baltimore is 51-29-2 against the spread during the first half with Jackson under center. The Ravens will surely produce a similar showing in front of a raucous crowd during their first home AFC title game in franchise history.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Chiefs vs. Ravens best odds
ESPN BET (-105)
It's delightful to see so many of our best sports betting apps offering kicker props, illustrating how much sports betting has been growing in recent years. There are more markets being released in such a competitive industry.
Bettors are better off, as now we can price shop and take advantage of some solid discounts. In this case, ESPN BET is well off market with a -105 offering on Over 1.5 field goals for Butker. This line should be priced closer to -120, so take advantage while you still can.
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds
The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites, and the market quickly hit the home team with plenty of action to take advantage. The line has now moved to 3.5 or 4 at our best sports betting sites. We expect there to be buyback on the Chiefs later in the week.
The total has mostly remained at 44.5 so far, despite there being more action on the Over.
Chiefs vs. Ravens game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 27 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 44 degrees, 13-mph winds, 79% chance of precipitation
Chiefs-Ravens prediction made Thursday at 2:50 p.m. ET.
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
