Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Analysis and Prediction

Some of the most memorable UFC events every year take place in London, England. This weekend, the UFC is back in London Town and will be headlined by England’s own Tom Aspinall going up against Marcin Tybura in a top-10 heavyweight showdown.

Read more for the betting analysis and Aspinall vs Tybura prediction ahead of making your bets this weekend. 

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

Location of the game: O2 Arena, London, England.

Date and Time: Saturday, July 22, 2023. 3:00 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+

Aspinall is making his return after exactly one year. Coming off a TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes due to him blowing out his knee. 

Tybura is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Blagoy Ivanov in February. 

Aspinall is arguably the most talented fighter in the heavyweight division, not named Jon Jones. At 30 years old, he is entering his prime with a record of 12-3, and all 12 of his wins have come from a finish. The only blemishes on his record have even come from strange results. Including an injury and a DQ (much like Jon Jones’ only loss).

The lifelong martial artist has been unbelievably dominant in his UFC tenure. Averaging a whopping 7.41 significant strikes landed and only 2.87 absorbed per minute in the octagon. He also has a 100% takedown defense and a 100% takedown accuracy with 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. 

Tybrua is a Polish martial artist with a professional MMA record of 24-7, with 15 finishes at the age of 37. He is ranked No.10 in the heavyweight division, and this is a massive opportunity to steal the hype away from Aspinall. He is 7-1 since 2020 in the UFC. 

The heavyweight contender averages 3.55 significant strikes landed and 3.31 absorbed per minute in the UFC. He also adds 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes spent in the octagon and a solid 79% takedown defense to his game.

No injuries have been reported to the UFC. 

The Aspinall vs Tybura prediction can’t be made until you look at the best available UFC odds for this bout. Aspinall is coming in as the massive -460 betting favorite over the +360 underdog. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds for this 5-round fight.

It’s currently +600 for this fight to reach the scorecards, which makes sense because heavyweights with four-ounce gloves are always one punch away from ending a fight at any moment. Aspinall is still -375 to win inside the distance, and Tybura is +400. 

When looking at this fight from a technical point of view, it’s virtually impossible to see Tybura getting the best of Aspinall in any aspect of MMA. Aspinall is truly one of the most talented all-around fighters on the entire UFC roster.

Aspinall’s hand speed and explosiveness are unmatched in the heavyweight division, and he compliments those boxing skills with elite grappling ability after training on mats since he was just a little boy. 

The question mark is only with the durability of Aspinall’s leg. Coming off surgery and a long recovery, you should assume he is where he needs to be–but you never really know until those octagon doors lock. 

You have probably guessed by now that the Aspinall vs Tybura prediction is for Aspinall to get his hand raised on Saturday night. But with his moneyline having very little value, what should the betting pick be?

UFC predictions are already difficult to make correctly, but now we need to make it even harder and choose a prop bet to get actual value in a pick. You will need to find the best pick in your sportsbook that goes along with this prediction.

• Aspinall is going to hurt Tybura early and finish him in the first round.

You can get that at +100, or a first-round TKO/KO at +200, or submission at +500. The submission is the best bang for your buck and is very possible.

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