2023 Crayon 301 odds, picks and predictions
: Sunday’s 2023 Crayon 301 was postponed due to rain and will run Monday, starting at noon ET. Sunday’s original story (below) has been updated.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway Monday for the 2023 Crayon 301. The green flag is set to drop shortly after noon ET (USA Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook lines around the 2023 Crayon 301 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 Crayon 301: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Christopher Bell is the defending champ in New Hampshire, winning last July to snap a 4-race win streak by Ford
- Bell has been a quick learner in Loudon, finishing 1st, 5th and 28th in his 3 career Cup starts at the track
- Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick has won 2 of the past 4 New Hampshire races, and he has picked up checkers 4 times at the flat track in Loudon
- Harvick, making his final NHMS start, has posted a 12.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP) with 14 top-5 finishes, 23 top-10 runs and 831 laps led in his 39 career Cup starts
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin has won 3 times in his career at New Hampshire in 29 Cup starts, and he leads all active drivers with a 9.5 AFP
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch has won 3 times at New Hampshire, but this is his 1st start with this new team. He has 11 top-5 finishes, and 16 top-10 runs with a circuit-best 1,134 laps led in his 31 career Cup starts
- Team Penske’s Joey Logano is good for 2 wins, 8 top-5 runs and 13 top-10 finishes in his 24 career Cup starts, while posting a 14.6 AFP
- Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell has struggled over the years in New Hampshire, posting a dismal 32.5 AFP in20 career Cup starts with 10 DNFs
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman has had a hard time in Loudon, too, posting just a single top-10 result in 11 career Cup starts with a 24.3 AFP
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2023 Crayon 301 – Expert picks
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 3:44 p.m. ET.
KEVIN HARVICK (+1000) is looking for a Hollywood finish to his career, and he is a strong bet to get the all-important win on the flat track where he has been the best.
Harvick leads all active drivers with 4 victories with 14 top-5 finishes in his 39 career Cup starts, while posting a 12.2 AFP. He has had just a single DNF in his career, too.
Even playing KEVIN HARVICK TOP-5 FINISH (+130) at plus-money is a strong bet, as it is not priced out of line.
2023 Crayon 301 – Long shot
It’s not exactly a textbook “long-shot” bet, but seeing JOEY LOGANO (+1300) listed with some rather long odds is a bit surprising.
The Team Penske driver hasn’t won at the track since receiving the celebratory lobster in September 2014. However, Ford has won 4 of the past 5 starts in New Hampshire, and Team Penske should be right there at the end when the dust clears. Playing JOEY LOGANO TOP-5 FINISH (+170) offers solid value and is worth a play. The odds for him to finish in the top 10 was -120, which was a steal, but the juice has since climbed to -165.
2023 Crayon 301 – Prop picks and bets
We’re looking to Harvick and Logano above, so it’s natural to play FORD (+250) at the Manufacturer of the Winning Car.
In addition, LOGANO (+325) can help you multiply your initial wager by 3.25 times if he finishes as the Top Ford Car, while Harvick (+250) is a lesser value if he is the top finisher among his manufacturers’ cars.
I’m also leaning LOGANO (-160) over Ross Chastain (+125) in the head-to-head matchbets section. Saturday, the line had Logano at -120, which I really liked, but it has since climbed. We’ve covered Logano’s solid history at the track above. As for Chastain, he has a so-so 16.5 AFP with just 3 total laps led in his previous 4 career Cup starts at the track.
