2023 Home Run Derby odds, picks, bracket: Will Julio Rodríguez win derby in his home park?

The 2023 Home Run Derby is set for Monday night and features another loaded field. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite and faces two-time champion Pete Alonso in the first round of the eight-man bracket. Alonso is the favorite to win at BetMGM.

The derby starts at 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN, ESPN2 (Statcast) and the ESPN app if you want to stream the event.

Juan Soto won the 2022 Home Run Derby beating two-time defending champion Pete Alonso 31-23 in the semifinals last year. He also beat Rodríguez 19-18 in the final. We’ll see Rodríguez and Alonso go up against each other in the first round of the 2023 Home Run Derby. This will be Alonso’s fourth straight time competing in the derby. Only David Ortiz and Albert Pujols have competed more.

White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. is the No. 1 seed, determined by who had the most home runs on July 4. The tiebreaker for Robert and Alonso was Robert had more home runs since June 15. If I have one beef with the seeding, the defending champion should always get the No. 1 seed. And let’s be honest that seeding doesn’t matter in this competition.

This will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s second appearance in the Home Run Derby. He set the record for most home runs in a single round with 40 in 2019 at Progressive Field in Cleveland and the most home runs in a Derby with 91, even though he lost to Alonso in the finals.

While T-Mobile Park does have a retractable roof, it isn’t a domed-in stadium with the outfield open. That was similar to what we saw in 2017 at Marlins Park, and there were some monster home runs that night with the roof closed but the outfield windows open, including a 500-plus foot home run. I couldn’t confirm if the roof will be open or closed.

Monday’s forecast for Seattle calls for a high of 70 degrees with wind between 5-7 mph during the Home Run Derby, which shouldn’t affect things too much. The lower temperatures will hurt how far the ball travels. That leans towards MLB keeping the roof open, given the perfect weather for the event.

2023 Home Run Derby odds

Longest home run prop

The prop for the longest home run is set at 489.5 feet. No home run at T-Mobile Park has ever gone more than 470 feet in the Statcast era. Mike Zunino’s blast landed in the second-to-last row in the left field bleachers. Less than 10 players have hit a home run into the left field bleachers at T-Mobile Park.

Shohei Ohtani absolutely destroyed this ball last season against the Mariners. Statcast projected it went 463 feet.

More than 10 home runs went more than 500 feet in 2021 at Coors Field, but that was at elevation, and the balls weren’t placed in a humidor as they typically are at Coors Field. Soto hit the longest home run in last year’s competition at 482 feet.

Given the temperature and the lack of wind, I’d lean the under here. If the roof is open, it’ll be harder for balls to fly far.

2023 Home Run Derby bracket

Robert is the biggest favorite in the first round, with Guerrero the second biggest favorite against Betts despite being the No. 6-seed.

(1) Luis Robert Jr. (-215) vs. (8) Adley Rutschman (+175)

(4) Adolis García (-140) vs. (5) Randy Arozarena (+115)

(2) Pete Alonso (-170) vs. (7) Julio Rodríguez (+140)

(6) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-210) vs. (3) Mookie Betts (+170)

Home Run Derby expert picks

Winner: Randy Arozarena 

Arozarena is having a career year with exit velocity averaging 92.7 mph. He’s also hitting the barrel on 14.8 percent of his batted balls. He will be an overlooked player in this competition, with Alonso and Rodríguez stealing the headlines. Arozarena is also a showman, and what greater stage is there for an individual in baseball than the Home Run Derby?

Over/under 274.5 home runs total 

With the weather and T-Mobile Park being a middle-of-the-road home run stadium, I will go under here. If the total hits also depends on how many home runs get hit by the first player to go in each matchup. We saw some low totals in the semifinal and championship last year.

Winning league: American (-300), National (+220) 

Give me the American League, as I’m only betting against Pete Alonso and Mookie Betts.