MLB Home Run Derby preview: Odds, picks and analysis

The Midsummer Classic will be played on Tuesday, which means it’s the All-Star break, a time to recalibrate as a baseball fan and bettor. The Tigers are off until Friday, but there’s loads of baseball action over the next few days.

On Monday, the Home Run Derby will be held at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Eight of baseball’s best hitters will compete in a multi-round slugfest to crown baseball’s supreme four-bag king. On Tuesday the All-Star Game Red Carpet will take place before the 2023 MLB All-Star Game.

In this article, we take a look at a few of the prop bets available on FanDuel, one of the best MLB sportsbooks, for Monday’s Home Run Derby. We also handicap the field round-by-round.

MLB Home Run Derby details

• What: MLB Home Run Derby, presented by T-Mobile
• When: Monday, July 10
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)

Home Run Derby Prop Bet Odds

These prop bets for the 2023 Home Run Derby are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Get 10x your first bet up to $200, regardless of if that bet wins or loses, with our exclusive link, here.

Total Home Runs Hit by all Players, All Rounds:

• Over 274.5 Home Runs (-122)
• Under 274.5 Home Runs (-104

Player to hit the Longest Home Run:

• Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+240)
• Pete Alonso (+340)
• Luis Robert Jr. (+400)
• Julio Rodríguez (+700)
• Aroldis Garcia (+700)
• Randy Arozarena (+750)
• Adley Rutschman (+2500)
• Mookie Betts (+2800)

You can also find odds on FanDuel for the total distance in miles (over/under) for all home runs. Also, the exact distance (in feet) of the single longest home run.

(No. 1) Luis Robert Jr., 26 HR (+400 to win the HR Derby) vs. (No. 8) Adley Rutschman, 12 HR (+2000)

The seedings for the HR Derby were determined by the home run totals through July 4th. Robert Jr. gets the top seed, but the advantages are not extreme: he hits last in the first round. His opponent is the Baltimore catcher who hits from both sides of the plate. But Rutschman will likely choose to bat lefthanded, the side he has better power from.

Robert Jr. (-250 to win Round 1 according to FanDuel) should advance in his clash with Rutschman, but we have a surprise choice to win the derby. Rutschman is +198, which means a $100 winning bet would win you $198.

(No. 2) Pete Alonso, 26 HR (+300) vs. (No. 7) Julio Rodríguez, 13 HR (+500)

No one has ever taken the HR Derby more seriously than Alonso, a humorless man with a penchant for swatting high, arching home runs. He’s twice won this contest, and he’s among the favorites. His opponent is Mariners hometown favorite Rodríguez, who stole the headlines last year in this competition. Go with Rodríguez to upset Alonso, at +142 from FanDuel Sportsbook.

(No. 3) Mookie Betts, 26 HR (+2000) vs. (No. 6) Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 13 HR (+350)

Betts is tied for most HR among derby entrants, but isn’t taken that seriously among observers of this event. Mookie isn’t a traditional swing-for-the-fences hitter, which is why he’s the longest odds to win it, at +2000. But a $50 winning bet would win you $1,000 on the Dodgers outfielder.

Still, we like Vlad Jr. to advance, and to advance to the finals too.

(No. 4) Adolis García, 23 HR (+700) vs. (No. 5) Randy Arozarena, 16 HR (+950)

Among the current slate of batters who pose after home runs, Arozarena is the one a lot of fans like to hate. That’s too bad, because he’s fun to watch. He also has the quickest bat in this competition. Nevertheless, we like García to win round one, and to advance into the finals.

Our pick for derby champ is Guerrero, defeating García in the finals. A winning bet on Vlad Jr. would win you $350 if you stake $100.

To set the tone for tonight, here’s a video clip of Ken Griffey Jr. competing in the home run derby with one of the prettiest swings in baseball history.

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