2023 MLB Home Run Derby odds, picks and prediction

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The 2023 T-Mobile Home Run Derby takes place Monday at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The event begins at approximately 8 p.m. ET and will be televised on ESPN and ESPN2. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s and BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the 2023 T-Mobile Home Run Derby odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Juan Soto won last summer at Dodger Stadium. Pete Alonso claimed a 2nd consecutive title in 2021 at Coors Field after winning at Progressive Field in Cleveland in 2019 — there was no competition in 2020.

2023 Home Run Derby odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 2:29 p.m. ET.

Home Run Derby: What you need to know

• Seattle’s Rodriguez will likely receive the loudest cheers since he’s in his home park. He was the runner-up to Soto in last season’s Derby.
• Guerrero Jr. was the runner-up to Alonso in 2019 in Cleveland, his best finish to date.
• Below are the 1st-round matchups (seeds based on HR totals through July 4; Robert Jr. received the top seed over Alonso — both had 25 HRs — based on who had the most HRs since June 15):
• Top-seeded Robert Jr. and 8th-seeded Rutschman meet in a battle of 1st-time participants.
• Two-time champ and No. 2 seed Alonso faces Rodriguez, the 7th seed and last year’s runner-up.
• Guerrero, the No. 6 seed, faces 3rd-seeded Betts.
• Garcia, the No. 4 seed, squares off against 5th-seeded Arozarena.

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2023 Home Run Derby winner picks

RANDY AROZARENA (+1000 at BetMGM Sportsbook) is a solid value play. The outfielder will have his hands full in the 1st round against Garcia, but the Rays star should be able to get by the Rangers outfielder in a battle of 1st-timers.

I like the fact Arozarena won’t have to go up against Rodriguez, Vlad Jr. or Alonso until at least the final round, too. This side of the bracket, which includes Robert Jr. and Rutschman, is wide open, and Arozarena could really surprise.

In the other side of the bracket, it’s hard to pick against Alonso (+300). While he is the chalk, no one in this Derby field knows what it takes to win better than he does. Alonso takes this competition very seriously, but he’ll have his hands full in the opening round going against Rodriguez, who will have full support from the Seattle crowd.

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2023 Home Run Derby props

ROUND 1 WIN: RANDY AROZARENA (+118 at FanDuel Sportsbook) is my pick to win it all, so it’s no surprise I like him to top Garcia (-144) in the 1st-round matchup.

In addition, I think we’ll get a ROUND 1 WIN from PETE ALONSO (-175 at BetMGM Sportsbook) over the hometown favorite in Rodriguez (+145), who has a tall order facing the 2-time winner of this contest.

You can also bet Home Run Derby Round 1 parlays, and I love the PETE ALONSO, VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. AND RANDY AROZARENA ALL TO ADVANCE TO ROUND 2 (+400 at BetMGM) parlay for a chance to more quadruple our initial wager.

Sticking with the Round 1 parlays, LUIS ROBERT, PETE ALONSO AND VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR. ALL TO ADVANCE TO ROUND 2 (+330 at BetMGM) is a little safer of a play, but still gives us a chance to more than triple up.

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