Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions 2023

sportsbookreview.com

09 July 2023

Five of the eight contestants in the 2023 Home Run Derby are appearing in either their first or second MLB All-Star Game. Read on for our 2023 Home Run Derby picks based on the MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby based on the Home Run Derby odds. He would join Seattle Mariners slugger Ken Griffey Jr. with a victory and become one of just two contestants to win three home run derbies.

If Alonso reaches the final, he'll likely face a Cuban-born player from the other side of the bracket, as three Cubans (Luis Robert Jr., Adolis Garcia, and Randy Arozarena) are the first Home Run Derby participants from that country since Yasiel Puig in 2014.

Home Run Derby printable bracket and get a jump on Tuesday's showcase with our best MLB All-Star Game picks.

Let's look at our best 2023 Home Run Derby picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Home Run Derby odds

Home Run Derby picks

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the Home Run Derby (+450 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a record while hitting 91 home runs during the 2019 Home Run Derby. He'll hold a significant advantage over his first-round opponent Mookie Betts, as Guerrero’s average home run distance is the longest of all derby participants. He figures to benefit from the additional 30-second bonus awarded to batters who hit multiple 440-foot dingers in a round.

As one of the heaviest men in the competition, many will suggest Guerrero will get tired the longer the event goes. But he didn't look tired in 2019, backing up his 40-home runs in a third-round victory over Joc Pederson with another 22 in the final. And Guerrero boasts the lowest launch angle average per home run of all eight competitors, so we expect his long balls to leave in a hurry, preserving valuable time on the pitch clock.

Guerrero has clubbed a modest 13 home runs in 2023, but Juan Soto won in 2022 after producing a quiet first half. This is a three-star play, as Guerrero’s 109.1 mph average home run exit velocity is third in MLB behind only Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr.

We can't argue with a player who hit 38,641 feet (more than seven miles) of home runs the last time he competed in this event. That experience will serve him well in his efforts to get over the hump in 2023.

Guerrero’s odds are as low as +350 at BetMGM and FanDuel, making his +450 price at Caesars a steal.

Adolis Garcia may be getting what many consider to be a “coin-flip” first-round matchup against Randy Arozarena. But his name appears in the top-four outcomes for the “name the finalists” wager at DraftKings, so betting him to reach the final at +220 makes sense. Be sure to make this bet via our DraftKings promo code for the Home Run Derby.

Garcia’s 23 home runs are the most among AL right fielders, and his five opposite-field deep balls are tied for the second-most in the league. Garcia possesses short, strong arms and a compact swing that plays well at this event.

An experienced person is throwing to him in third base coach Tony Beasley, who has already pitched in this event to Joey Gallo. Garcia knows the ballpark well because he plays in the same division as the Mariners. That should also make him comfortable in the early rounds.

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Luis Robert to hit the longest home run (+340 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Luis Robert arguably gets the easiest first-round matchup while facing Adley Rutschman, who's posted the lowest barrel rate of all eight competitors. Robert boasts the highest barrel rate, and the high likelihood of him winning his first-round matchup means he'll get more opportunities to hit home runs.

Robert’s longest home run of the season is 444 feet, the fourth-longest among all eight competitors. However, all three batters with longer home runs (Julio Rodriguez, Pete Alonso, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) have all competed in this event before and are more likely to conserve energy rather than swing out of their cleats early.

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This is also a nice hedge against Garcia making the final, since his chances of cashing the same wager get higher the more he advances. And considering Robert is the favorite at +250 through Caesars to hit the longest home run, we're getting great value while making this play at DraftKings.

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