MLB Picks for July 10: Home Run Derby Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

MLB is officially in the All-Star Break and tonight is the Home Run Derby. Eight players will compete in tonight's event in a bracket-style format. In the first round, we’ll see:

Luis Robert (1) against Adley Rutschman (8)
Adolis Garcia (4) vs. Randy Arozarena (5),
Mookie Betts (3) against Vlad Guerrero Jr (6)
Pete Alonso (2) vs. Julio Rodriguez (7).

Let’s look at some bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.

In an event like this, there is no secret sauce to picking a winner. If you go through social media today, you’ll see a plethora of predictions for this event. Some people will go with the reigning champ Pete Alonso (+310), while others will go all the way down the board to Adley Rutschman (+1800) for value. Personally, I like Robert, who’ll be in the first Derby of his career. Robert possesses some huge power and currently ranks in the 88th percentile in max exit velocity and 94th in barrel %, according to Baseball Savant.

Currently sitting at 26 home runs on the year, his expected home runs at T-Mobile park would boost him up to 29, the second-most of any stadium. As the biggest favorite to move on to the second round at -225 against Rutschman and thus facing the winner of Arozarena and Garcia, I like the path for Robert.

Let’s go for an upset in the first round. To be honest, I really don’t think this is as far fetched as the odds imply. At -170, Alonso has an over 60% chance of taking this down. Is it really that lopsided? Rodridguez made it to the finals last year and clubbed a total of 81 home runs in LA, before falling to Juan Soto. His 81 home runs ranked him second all-times, trailing only Vlad Guerrero Jr with 91.

Despite Alonso being the overwhelming favorite, both players have a 21.5 first round total. The over for Alonso sits at -125 while Rodriguez is at +110. Rodriguez, of course, is playing at his home field of T-Mobile Park. I don’t disregard that as a a bit of advantage for the Mariners hometown star.

I also have to question what’s going on with Alonso. It’s been less than a month since he was sidelined with a left wrist sprain and was activated back on June 18th. While normal batting stats aren’t relevant in this competition, Alonso is hitting just .187 with four home runs and three doubles through 87 plate appearances. The hits he has have gone for extra bases, with seven of his 11 doing so, but will the constant swings for home runs bother him at all? It’s something to at least consider, especially when you can get his competition at +145.

I think these two will put on a show in the first round. While Guerrero Jr may only have 13 home runs on the season, he’s still in the 98th percentile in max exit velocity and 88th in barrel %. Betts, who has 26 home runs on the year, isn’t high in the max exit velocity (60th) but is seeing his highest launch angle of his career at 19.7. Needing an average of 21 home runs from each player, both of them have the capabilities have putting up some big numbers in this first round. Of the four first round matchups, this is the second-highest total but is seeing the action on the over.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.