Home Run Derby Odds: Here’s How The Derby Works-And Who Has The Best Chance Of Winning

Major League Baseball released its lineup this week for Monday night’s Home Run Derby in Seattle, giving betters a chance to win big—here’s who’s favored to win in the competition, when eight of the MLB's biggest sluggers compete for a $1 million grand prize.

Key Facts

Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who won the derby in 2019 and 2021, is favored to win the derby again this year after being knocked out in the second round last year, with +310 odds, according to DraftKings, meaning betters who wager $100 on Alonso will win $310 if he comes out on top.

Alonso is also favored in the Action Network’s betting lines, at +250, over Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+300)—whose father, MLB Hall of Fame member Vladimir Guerrero, won the derby in 2007.

Action Network ranks Guerrero Jr. above Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodríguez (+450) and Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (+550), while DraftKings puts Guerrero’s odds at +350, followed by Robert (+475) and Rodríguez (+550).

BetMGM’s lines also favor Alonso, at 3.75, over Robert (5.00), Guerrero (5.00), Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis García (6.00) and Rodríguez (6.50), the only batter in the derby playing at his home field, at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park.

Each of the eight players participating in the derby were seeded by their home run totals through July 4. Batters compete in a series of head-to-head single-elimination matchups, with the batter with the most home runs over three minutes advancing to the next round. At the end of each round, batters’ home runs reset to zero, meaning two batters who won their first-round matchups and advanced to the second round will start from scratch. In the third and final round, the two remaining batters have two and a half minutes to hit as many home runs as possible, with the winner crowned champion of the derby.

Baseball fans can also bet on each round of the derby. Robert, who faces Baltimore Orioles star Adley Rutschman in the first round, is favored to come out on top, according to BetMGM, while Guerrero is expected to beat Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts in the first round. Garcia is expected to beat Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays in the first round, and Alonso is favored to beat Rodríguez in a first round rematch of last year’s semifinals.

$1 million. That’s how much the winner of the MLB’s 38th Home Run Derby will win this year.

Shohei Ohtani is sitting out this year’s home run derby, despite belting enough home runs in the first three months of the season to put him on track to beat New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge’s American League all-time single-season home run record, which he hit last year. The Los Angeles Angels pitching and hitting phenom is leading the league in home runs, with 31. Ohtani was selected to the MLB All Star Game for the third straight year, but ruled out participating this year, following a years-long tradition of sluggers taking the night off out of an abundance of caution not to disrupt their swing for the rest of the year. Also missing on this year’s list is Matt Olson, the Atlanta Braves star with the second most home runs in the league (29), as well as Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber and Ozzie Albies, who are tied for sixth in the league with 22 home runs.