John Deere Classic picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf
John Deere Classic picks and best bets at TPC Deere Run this week as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.
After seeing the most star-studded field in the young history of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we have the polar opposite on deck this week for the 2023 John Deere Classic. Denny McCarthy, Cameron Young and Ludvig Aberg are perhaps the biggest names in the field at TPC Deere Run this week, which tells you all you need to know about virtually every big name taking the week off, including even defending champion J.T. Poston.
We’re hoping for a much better week with the weak field, though, than we got in Detroit last week with our PGA Tour expert picks. Simply, it was a shutout in the wrong direction as we went 0-for at the Rocket Mortgage, particularly with Aberg fading after a hot start and Justin Thomas being a flat-out bad call for an outright as he missed the cut.
No more of that with our John Deere Classic picks. We’re going through a Top 10, outright and one and done pick before making more best bets for the week with our PGA Tour expert picks for this week’s golf at TPC Deere Run.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Rocket Mortgage: 39-106-2, +1.606 units (2-33 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -4.6 units at Rocket Mortgage)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $8,020,510.65 (Ludvig Abert at RMC, $33,000)
PGA Tour expert picks for John Deere Classic: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 Pick for the John Deere Classic: Eric Cole (+460)
Against all odds, Eric Cole actually took a week off during the Rocket Mortgage but he’s back in the field this week and looking to continue some stellar form. He’s finished Top 25 in five of his last seven starts, including two Top 15 finishes. Now that the strength of field is severely lessened, we have an extremely accurate driver with good approach numbers and a dynamite short game coming to this tournament. He’s live to contend, but I love this number for just a Top 10.
Pick to Win the John Deere Classic (0.5 Units): Adam Schenk (+3100)
While Adam Schenk missed the cut at the US Open and Travelers, his other three starts in his last five have resulted in three T7 or better finishes, including a T2 at the Charles Schwab. Schenk has been the fourth-best approach player in this field over the last 16 rounds while also gaining slightly off the tee and being accurate and putting well too. He’s been putting himself in contention in non-designated events and this is a perfect fit for him to do so again. I love the 31/1 number on him this week at the John Deere.
One and Done Pick for the John Deere Classic: Adam Schenk
Everything that we just said with Schenk is why we’re using him for the One and Done pick this week. He fits the place well and is showing some great form, so I’m buying a nice finish from him and not burning any name I might be inclined to use in any other remaining week this season.
John DeereClassic picks and best bets
Ludvig Aberg to finish Top 10 (+330)
Yes, Ludvig Aberg burned me last week — but I’m not quitting him. The youngster led the field in driving this past week but his approach play, which was a strength in his college career, didn’t follow suit. I think we see him pop this week as he gets more comfortable with the PGA Tour flow of a tournament and that his talent simply pushes him to the top of the leaderboard in this field.
Mark Hubbard to finish Top 20 (+250)
Sure, Mark Hubbard has missed the cut in the past two weeks on the PGA Tour. But you know what’s also true? He ranks No. 1 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 16 rounds at 1.31. Second-best is at 1.04. After popping with a pair of Top 10 finishes at the Charles Schwab and in Canada, I think he can put together a Top 20 this week at a place that should suit his game.
Chez Reavie to finish Top 30 (+170)
It’s the Chez swing right now and the PGA Tour veteran is taking full advantage. With three straight finishes of T29 or better, Reavie is sixth in the field in approach over the last 16 rounds right now. Combine that with lethal accuracy with his driver, and he should be a great fit at TPC Deere Run, evidenced by a T18 finish here in 2021. All of that working together leads me to a conservative but seemingly safe play for a Top 30 this week at shockingly plus odds.
Longshot pick to win the John Deere Classic (0.1 Units): Ryan Moore (+10000)
Look, when you’re talking about a thin field such as this one, the sleepers and longshots are a bit harder to come by. With that said, Ryan Moore has a T2 and another Top 20 in his last two starts at this event, has been driving the ball extremely accurately, and has gained on approach in his last 16 rounds. At 100/1 in this field, that’s enough for a small sprinkle to think maybe the veteran finds himself in contention.
