2023 PGA Championship picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that nailed 9 majors

The second major of the year will be decided when the PGA Tour heads to Oak Hill Country Club for the 2023 PGA Championship. The PGA Championship 2023, which gets underway on Thursday, May 18, will feature a star-studded field with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas among the household names chasing the coveted Wanamaker Trophy. Thomas can become the first golfer to win the PGA Championship in consecutive years for the first time since Books Koepka did so in 2018-2019.

Rahm, the No. 1 ranked player in the world, is the 9-1 favorite according to the latest 2023 PGA Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Thomas is 14-1 to repeat, while Scheffler (10-1) and McIlroy (10-1) are also among the top 2023 PGA Championship contenders. Before locking in your 2023 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2023 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $7,400 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned almost $1,100. McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 longshot.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 PGA Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2023: Jordan Spieth, a 13-time PGA Tour winner and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top 10. Spieth has competed at Oak Hill Country Club once before at the 2013 PGA Championship and missed the cut. He's finished 30th or worse in his last three PGA Championship starts and has just two career top-10s across 10 starts at the major.

Spieth was at his best and winning majors when his putter was on, but he's regressed considerably on the greens. He ranks just 76th in strokes gained putting (.098) and 113th in total putting (238.5). Those struggles are leading to extra strokes, evident by Spieth ranking outside the top 100 on the PGA Tour in birdies made. Spieth hasn't recaptured his major-winning form, and the model sees far better betting options in the 2023 PGA Championship field.

Another surprise: Patrick Cantlay, a 22-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Cantlay is a long-ball hitter who's averaging over 305 yards per drive this season. Cantlay's ability to drive the ball deep into the fairway has allowed him to use his short irons on approach shots. That lethal combination has helped the 30-year-old hit 72.22% of greens in regulation this season, which ranks fourth on tour.

Plus, Cantlay has proven he can beat the best players on tour, winning the Tour Championship in 2021, making him a strong value pick for your 2023 PGA Championship bets, according to the model. See who else to pick here. 

How to make 2023 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with PGA Championship odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA Championship picks here.

2023 PGA Championship odds, field

Jon Rahm 9-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Scottie Scheffler 10-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Brooks Koepka 19-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Cameron Smith 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Hideki Matsuyama 25-1
Dustin Johnson 25-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Will Zalatoris 25-1
Cameron Young 25-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 30-1
Joonhyung (Tom) Kim 35-1
Bryson DeChambeau 35-1
Max Homa 35-1
Shane Lowry 35-1
Sungjae Im 40-1
Joaquin Niemann 40-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Jason Day 40-1
Justin Rose 60-1
Daniel Berger 60-1
Sahith Theegala 60-1
Paul Casey 65-1
Tyrrell Hatton 65-1
Louis Oosthuizen 65-1
Corey Conners 65-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Tommy Fleetwood 65-1
Abraham Ancer 65-1
Tiger Woods 65-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Webb Simpson 80-1
K.H. Lee 80-1
Mackenzie Hughes 80-1
Mito Pereira 80-1
Tom Hoge 85-1
Billy Horschel 90-1
Keegan Bradley 90-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Aaron Wise 90-1
Sergio Garcia 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Davis Riley 100-1
Russell Henley 100-1
Marc Leishman 100-1
Harris English 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1
Rickie Fowler 100-1
Jason Kokrak 100-1
Luke List 125-1
Bubba Watson 125-1
Chris Kirk 125-1
Alex Noren 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
Matthew Wolff 125-1
Harold Varner 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
JT Poston 150-1
Maverick McNealy 150-1
Brian Harman 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Cameron Champ 150-1
Erik van Rooyen 150-1
Kevin Kisner 150-1
JJ Spaun 150-1
Jhonattan Vegas 150-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Trey Mullinax 150-1
Francesco Molinari 150-1
Thomas Pieters 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Sepp Straka 150-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Lee Westwood 200-1
Henrik Stenson 200-1
Sam Horsfield 200-1
Russell Knox 250-1
Ryan Palmer 250-1