2024 MLB AL MVP predictions, odds: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge

Oddsmakers are counting on big things from the Bronx Bombers tandem of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, as the pair are priced first and second in the 2024 AL MVP futures market at every regulated bookmaker. 

However, there are a bevy of logical winners waiting behind that pair, which should make this year’s AL MVP race more compelling than in 2023 when Shohei Ohtani had all but won by the time July arrived.

(All odds via FanDuel)

Judge (+550) will benefit significantly from having Soto, another MVP-caliber hitter, to insulate himself.

He’s only one season removed from an historic 62-home run campaign and still put up a 1.019 OPS in 458 plate appearances in 2023. 

If Judge gets 600 plate appearances, look out.

However, we might not be able to count on that since he supposedly will have to monitor last season’s toe injury for the rest of his career.

Soto (+600), meanwhile, will look to benefit from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. In seven career games there, he has hit four homers and owns a 1.219 OPS.

However, per Baseballsavant, Soto hit just two balls last season with the Padres that would’ve been home runs at Yankee Stadium.

I wouldn’t talk anybody off of bets for Judge or Soto. At their short prices, though, I don’t quite have the conviction because there are simply too many legitimate candidates to steal the award this year. 

One of those is Yordan Alvarez, who is my favorite bet on the board at 11/1.

The Yankees’ offense should be considerably better, but if it isn’t then Judge and Soto are at a disadvantage compared to batters on full-blown offensive powerhouses.

The Astros are projected to lead the AL by FanGraphs with 5.05 runs per game.

There are some flaws with Alvarez’s chances in this market. He will need to stay healthy and, for him, that is more of a question mark than many others. He might also mainly be used as a designated hitter, and no true DH has ever won the AL MVP. 

I’ll look past those concerns to bet the best hitter in baseball hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup.

Alvarez had a .583 slugging percentage last season, which underperformed his .626 expected rate. He has lowered his strikeouts in each full season of his career and continues to become more of a nightmare to face. 

That was evident in the postseason last year, as he tortured the Twins and Rangers with a 1.487 OPS and six homers across 11 games.

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It makes sense to back Alvarez in batting-specific markets like most RBIs as well, but at 11/1 there is value in backing him to win the MVP.

PICK: Yordan Alvarez to win AL MVP (11/1, FanDuel)