2024 MLB odds, predictions: Why the Astros will reclaim dominance
After an epic sprint to the finish in 2023, the battle for first in the AL West should again make for one of baseball’s most compelling storylines this season.
The Astros stole the division crown from the Rangers on the final day of the 2023 season, but it was the Rangers who had the last laugh, as they battled past Houston in Game 7 of a scintillating ALCS en route to a World Series title.
Both teams retained most of their top stars, and we can count on the Lone Star Series being appointment television again as a result.
And don’t forget about the Mariners, who feature an excellent young starting staff with loads of upside, a quality bullpen, and a solid player position pool that will now feature Jorge Polanco at second base.
Three playoff teams coming out of the division is a real possibility considering the roster strengths of the Astros, Mariners and Rangers, a trio that should run roughshod over the Angels and Athletics.
It’s interesting to note that oddsmakers consider an exact repeat of last season’s AL West standings as the most likely outcome.
If we do see a slight shuffle in the standings, where might be?
The Astros are a worthy division favorite, and could easily prove to be the class of the entire AL again.
There really isn’t much potential downside to any of the changes surrounding the team, and the roster should be as dominant as ever.
It’s possible that losing Martin Maldonado’s game-calling ability behind the plate could lead to a drop-off in form from the pitching staff, but 25-year-old Yainer Diaz should be a good fit.
Dusty Baker is a legend of the game, but new manager Joe Espada should not be viewed as a downgrade.
If he can remain healthy, Yordan Alvarez is likely to be in the AL MVP conversation.
He headlines an elite combination of position players with Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.
None of those four are regression candidates, and if anything, it would not be surprising to see Bregman put together a better campaign in a contract year.
Jeremy Peña has come into spring training with a drastically different swing, displaying a far quieter stance.
We hear this type of thing a lot around spring training, but it does seem fair to say Peña’s changes could prove significant if he can keep his strikeout rate down like we saw last season and create increased power at the plate.
The other thing we hear this time of year is how players entering camp are in the best shape of their lives.
For the Astros, supposedly that person is Jose Abreu, who had down year while batting with nagging back ailments but did figure it out down the stretch.
He’s always been a productive big league bat, and might have some game left at full strength.
And lastly, Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and Justin Verlander will compile what should still be an elite starting pitching staff.
If we are to see a little shakeup in the standings, it might be more likely to come with the Mariners managing a surprising second-place finish above the Rangers.
Texas still has arguably the best position players in baseball.
Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter are stepping into full-time roles alongside Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and Marcus Semien.
That makes for a scary lineup.
The concerns for Texas revolve around their depleted starting pitching staff.
Jacob DeGrom is set to remain sidelined until August, Max Scherzer is expected back in June, and free-agent signing Tyler Mahle will miss several months.
That leaves a starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney.
Second-year lefty Cody Bradford will likely get the No. 5 spot but could be overtaken by Rangers top-10 prospect Owen White in time.
The Mariners will have a significant edge with a staff compiled of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.
They are still likely to have an elite bullpen behind those quality arms, and should be among the league leaders in ERA.
Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver could make the losses of Teoscar Hernandez, Jarrod Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez less notable.
The Angels meanwhile haven’t yet landed the significant pieces needed to help mitigate the loss of Shohei Ohtani, and appear a safe bet to remain in fourth.
They signed relievers Robert Stephenson, Adam Cimber, Zach Plesac and Adam Kolarek to shore up an awful bullpen, and brought in Aaron Hicks on a one-year deal.
Their betting total remains down at 71.5 wins, which is the fifth-lowest in the league.
MLB’s lowest total goes to the Athletics at 56.5.
However, FanGraphs and PECOTA agree that mark is far too low, and both of their projections would argue there is clear value on the over.
Still, it’s difficult to say for certain what the team might look like come Aug. 1.
Alex Wood and Ross Stripling were brought in via free agency and do offer some legitimate MLB arms to help support a developing rotation.
The Astros are well-situated to take another crack at a championship in what could be somewhat of a Last Dance-type season with Bregman’s deal coming up among many others in 2025.
The pillars of their lineup should make for a highly productive offense, which is backed by solid starting pitching.
If those two strengths come to fruition, opponents will have zero fun playing from behind in late innings.
In some fashion, I want to target the Astros, as I believe they are a worthy favorite.
By no means would I argue against backing the Astros to win the division at +115, but backing them to be the No. 1 seed in the American League at +350 projects to hold more value.
The key thing to consider about betting them to be the top seed compared to betting them to win the division is evaluating what percentage of the time we think they win the division title but not the No. 1 seed, and how that percentage relates to the difference in betting prices.
The East is likely to be a bloodbath, and it will be tough for its two favorites — New York and Baltimore — to rack up high win totals as a result; the Red Sox betting total of 79.5 is by far the lowest in the division.
The Yankees and Orioles look pretty scary, but I still believe the Astros are worthy of a higher betting total for regular-season wins than that pair.
The Central is likely to be the softest of the three AL divisions by a margin again, but there is not likely to be a side dominant enough to take full advantage of that and reach 96-plus wins.
If the Astros can best the Mariners and Rangers in the division race, I love their chances of getting the No. 1 seed in the AL.
Best bet: Astros to earn No. 1 seed in AL (+350, FanDuel)
