2024 New York Mets futures odds: Lindor, Alonso MVP odds, will they make the playoffs?
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Following a profoundly disappointing 75-87 record a year ago despite plenty of big names, what are the chances the Mets can bounce back in a talent-rich National League and make it to the playoffs in 2024?
We’ll go over 2024 Mets futures odds here, including the chances of Carlos Mendoza’s squad playing past the last day of the regular season, as well as the odds of either of the team’s two biggest offensive stars – Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso – snagging MVP honors.
2024 World Series odds for any team here, with the Mets currently in the middle of the pack at a +5000 at FanDuel.
It’s easy to forget in the wake of last season, but the Mets were a 101-win team just two years ago. New York retains many of the pieces from that club, most importantly Lindor and Alonso.
Additionally, holdovers such as Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte still dot the starting nine as well. Marte in particular could be pivotal to any Mets resurgence in 2024, as he’s reportedly back to full health following the groin issues that cut his 2023 campaign short.
Yet, while there could be plenty of offense when also considering the highly promising Francisco Alvarez and his contributions, pitching could well be New York’s undoing. Kodai Senga, who had an excellent first season stateside (12-7, 2.98 ERA, 10.9 K/9), is shut down from throwing as March begins due to a shoulder issue that’s already required a PRP injection.
The rest of the rotation is littered with question marks. Veteran left-handers Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea have always had a bit of a Jekyll-and-Hyde quality to their careers. The same definitely applies to Luis Severino, whose undeniable talent was often sabotaged by injury across town during his nine seasons with the Yankees.
Edwin Diaz is expected back to full strength after last year’s disastrous World Baseball Classic ACL tear, but how often the starters can tee him up for save chances is very much in question. Neither price listed above is appealing anyhow, but if making this bet, another non-playoff season is the way I’d lean.
Lindor arrived in the Big Apple with a boatload of hype prior to the 2021 season after an impressive six-year run to start his career in Cleveland.
Even when factoring in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, Lindor combined Gold Glove defense with a .285 average, .833 OPS and impressively modest 14.1 percent strikeout rate to form a highly enticing package that had visions of multiple World Series titles dancing in the heads of Mets fans.
The subsequent results can’t be truly classified as profound disappointment – and there’s plenty of blame to go around for the team’s struggles in two of Lindor’s first three seasons – but his .254 average, .780 OPS and 19.1 percent strikeout rate during his New York tenure so far all represent clear downturns.
Nevertheless, Lindor is still only 30 and has the do-it-all skill set to put together the rich statistical portfolio typically required for serious MVP consideration, with his four 30+ homer seasons, trio of 90+ RBI campaigns and eight career double-digit steal tallies all supporting that notion.
Expectations are tempered for the Amazin’ Mets after last season’s debacle, but a fresh start under Mendoza and a lineup that could still offer Lindor a solid amount of protection and run-scoring/RBI opportunities could conceivably help propel him to an MVP-worthy season.
Alonso’s sheer unadulterated power always carries the potential to get him to MVP consideration, and with the slugging first baseman arguably right in the thick of his prime, he could make a run at shattering the career-best 53 round-trippers he launched during his unforgettable 2019 rookie campaign.
Alonso has averaged a homer every 15.6 plate appearances over the last two seasons while playing 314 out of a possible 324 games, and durability has never been a question for the prolific masher. Therefore, another iron man-like season out of Alonso has the potential to yield 50+ homers and 120+ RBI, especially in a possible walk year where he’ll look to max out his potential, to earn a great contract in free agency.
There is the matter of Alonso’s average and on-base percentage having slipped to a career-low .217 and .318, respectively, last season. However, a closer look reveals Alonso was victimized by an atypically low .205 BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) that was easily the worst of his career.
Otherwise, accompanying numbers such as his 9.9 percent walk rate, 22.9 percent strikeout rate and 22.9 percent HR/FB rate were all in line with his career figures in those categories.
As such, a bounce-back year where Alonso has appreciably better luck when making contact is very much within the realm of possibility. We’ve already seen what he’s capable of when his BABIP settles in the .270-.280 range it’s been in more often than not during his career, and that past body of work is enough to take a chance on him at his price.
