2023 Memorial Tournament odds, expert picks, sleepers: Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth among best bets

The PGA Tour moves from Texas to Ohio for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. Jack Nicklaus has hosted the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio every year since 1976. He has seen the tournament grow over the years as he has tried to tweak the course to keep up with the modern game. The Par 72 layout now measures more than 7,570 yards from the tips and features smaller-than-average greens that run fast while surrounded by deep rough, and strategically placed bunkers. Nicklaus knows that you can only lengthen a course so much before you end up giving the longest hitters more of an advantage

Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay have had the most success at Muirfield over the last few years, but the course setup and ideal weather conditions this week should bring out the best in a wide variety of players. The Memorial is a designated event for 2023, and thus, it will feature a stacked field. Tony Finau and Max Homa are both skipping this week while the rest of the big names on the PGA Tour gear up for a fine test of their golf game.

Since the latest renovation in 2020 strokes gained off the tee and on approach, have become even more important to contend at the Memorial. Strokes gained around the green will have more importance than usual, and some of my key players this week will have to bounce back from uncharacteristically poor showings around the green at recent tournaments.

Betting Slip

Jon Rahm +750 is not the betting favorite at a course he absolutely loves because of Scottie Scheffler and his amazing form from tee to green. If Rahm didn’t stumble to a T50 at the PGA Championship, we may have seen him as the co-betting favorite. Rahm won here in 2020 and ran away with the tournament in 2021 before being forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test. His putting has been miles better than Scheffler this season and that may be the deciding factor in who wins this week.

Tyrrell Hatton +2500 is on the verge of winning. He is in control of his entire game all the way from his driver to his putter. He has gained strokes off the tee in every measured tournament besides the WGC Match Play this season. He has gained 1.82 strokes or more on approach in three straight while gaining strokes around the green in four straight. He hasn’t played here since 2019, but I’m not worried about that.

Jordan Spieth +4000 missed the cut last week while being one of the favorites to win, which was a surprise. The injury isn’t hurting him off the tee or on approach, but it may be hindering him around the green. He has lost strokes around the green in three straight tournaments, which he hadn’t done since June 2020. I’m worried about the extra thick rough and how he will handle that, especially around the greens, but I can’t ignore him at this price at a tournament where he has four straight top 18 finishes.

Sleepers

Adam Scott +5500 hasn’t missed a cut since the 2022 PGA Championship and is playing the best golf of his season since his second-place finish at the ISPS Handa Australian Open. He has gained more than a stroke off the tee in five straight tournaments while gaining 7.99 strokes combined on approach in his last three tournaments. He has had some success here with a second-place finish back in 2019.

Sahith Theegala +5500 seems to like Muirfield, having made the cut in his first two tries while finishing T5 in 2022. He has made the cut in every tournament he has entered since October of 2022. He has struggled off the tee in two straight tournaments, but his short game has improved. I think the week off after the PGA Championship will have given him some important rest and we will see him bounce back this week.

Denny McCarthy +8000 (shop up to +15000) was tied for fifth last season here at the Memorial with Sahith Theegala at a place you wouldn’t think would be ideal for McCarthy’s game. He played well at the PGA Championship, finishing T29, but that week might have taken its toll as he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge and lost strokes around the green at the same clip he did at the PGA Championship. The extra rest on the weekend will hopefully refresh him enough to prepare him for this week.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,300 is doing historical stuff from tee to green lately. He gained over 15 strokes tee to green last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge only to finish third because he lost more than four strokes with his putter. He has averaged 12.9 gained from tee to green since the Genesis Invitational. He finished third here in 2021 so he has great course history. He will see some ownership pulled away from him because of Rahm’s and Cantlay’s resumes here, but that would be good for gamers who want to return to the well.

Jon Rahm $11,000 See above.

Rory McIlroy $10,600 should be who we are looking at from a game theory point of view. McIlroy has finished T18 here in back-to-back years, but he’s coming off a PGA Championship where he gained over 10 strokes from tee to green and looked like he finally got his game back in order. With no real dominance at this course and his struggles since the Masters, his ownership should be low enough to where you can leverage the field pretty easily.

Patrick Cantlay $10,500 is a beast off the tee this season. He has gained 2.86 strokes or more off the tee in seven of his last eight measured tournaments. He is just behind Scheffler in almost every tee to green category while having a slight edge on putting. He has two wins in the last four seasons and is coming off of a T9 at the PGA championship. I’m surprised he isn’t priced a little higher this week. He will have a ton of ownership, and I can’t say it will not be warranted. I think McIlroy is a smart game theory pick for GPPs, but Cantlay is probably where you want to start your cash lineups.

Viktor Hovland $9,700 showed that he has made great strides around the green at the PGA Championship. He is trending towards a win very soon and it may be before he gets another chance to contend at a major championship. He has gained 1.87 strokes or more off the tee in every tournament since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am that wasn’t a major championship. I’m a little concerned that he lost strokes on approach in two of his last three tournaments, but he’s been so good for so long with his irons that I am willing to overlook it. I’m not sure where his ownership numbers will be this week with him not having a great course history. I’m more than likely going to try and field him as my second-highest-priced player in GPP lineups.

Jordan Spieth $8,900 See above.

Rickie Fowler $8,500 brushed off his missed cut at the PGA Championship by finishing T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained more than 3 strokes on approach for the week and bounced back with the putter which cost him at the PGA Championship. I feel like he will be very popular this week and I might try to pivot off of him to a few of my other favorites in this price range.

Sahith Theegala $8,400 See above.

Corey Conners $8,300 took the week off after being in a position to win the PGA Championship and struggling to keep up with Brooks Koepka and the rest of the pack that passed him by. He has played well since missing the cut at the Masters and has continued to drive it well while also gaining over 1.9 strokes around the green in his last two outings. Combine that with his putting improving and his decent course history here and you can’t ignore him this week.

Wyndham Clark $8,200 missed the cut at the PGA Championship and maybe that had something to do with his hangover after winning the Wells Fargo Championship in his last outing. He finished 37th here last year and is now a much better version of that player. He pops in my model because of what he has accomplished over his last 36 rounds, but I would be a little cautious going overboard against such a strong field.

Adam Scott $8,000 See above.

Si Woo Kim $8,000 is hitting the ball really well. He has gained 3 or more strokes ball striking in five out of his last six measured tournaments. He even gained more than 3 strokes ball striking during his missed cut at the PGA Championship. He has five straight-made cuts here that include two straight top 13 finishes.

Denny McCarthy $7,600 See above.

Seamus Power $7,100 has gained 1.34 or more strokes off the tee in three straight tournaments. He had two straight top 20s before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. I believe he will bounce back and really like the price we are getting him at this week.

Thomas Detry $7,100 has been really consistent this year, but he hasn’t been spectacular. He’s priced in a zone where I think Ryan Fox $7,100 and Seamus Power will get noticed a little bit more and that makes me like Detry as a pivot play.

Nicolai Højgaard $7,000 shows up in my model as a very good course fit even without any course history. He has only lost strokes off the tee once since November and has gained 2.6 or more strokes with his short game in five out of his last six tournaments.

Kevin Streelman $6,700 is starting to come around with his game. We saw glimpses of it ever since the Valspar Championship, and now he has had back-to-back top 18 finishes. He has a nice record here with two top 15 finishes, including a fourth-place finish, among his last four tries.

Taylor Pendrith $6,700 has really struggled this year and I think a lot of it comes down to how he played at the President’s Cup. When your confidence gets shaken it can set you back for a while. He had a decent week at the PGA Championship and sets up pretty well for this course so I would take a flier on Pendrith in some GPP lineups.

Austin Eckroat $6,600 has gained strokes off the tee in five straight measured events while also gaining strokes on approach in three straight. He’s coming off a T2 and T16 in Texas and his confidence should be as high as it has been since turning professional.

Akshay Bhatia $6,500 is struggling with the putter big time. He has gained strokes off the tee in two out of his last three, and he has gained more than five strokes on approach in two out of his last three tournaments. The problem has been his putter, where he has lost over three strokes in two straight outings. He is still finding a way to make cuts and cash checks, and this course should set up well for him.

Mark Hubbard $6,500 is playing some great golf right now. He struggles off the tee but has gained more than 7 strokes on approach in two out of his last four tournaments and has two top 11 finishes in his last six outings.

Sam Stevens $6,500 gained almost 10 strokes off the tee combined at the Byron Nelson and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has gained strokes on approach in six out of his last seven measured events. His putter has been ice cold since his second-place finish at the Valero Texas Open, but there’s always a chance that bounces back out of the blue.

Chris Gotterup $6,200 made three straight cuts in the fall on the PGA Tour before heading to the Korn Ferry Tour full-time. He has only missed one cut since then while continuing to fine-tune his game. I’m a big fan of Gotterup and would love nothing more than to have a stars and scrubs lineup where the fellow New Jersey native helps me make some cash.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $8,908,766.22 (1 winner, 18 of 20 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $5,205,569 (16 of 19 cuts)

John Hayes:$4,988,568.37 (15 of 19 cuts)

If you want to see the golfers we have used throughout the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here. We pick in reverse order of the standings and can’t duplicate players in a given week.

Hayes: Viktor Hovland is my pick at Jack’s place. His recent form has been great and he’s ready to break through. His strength and long game should do well for him around this track. I thought about saving him for Royal Liverpool but the time is now.

Esser: Jon Rahm is my pick this week and I’m hoping that I can finally get this one and done jinx off my back when I use one of the top guys. I thought about saving him for one of the last two major championships but decided to go ahead and use him in a spot that he loves that has a ton of cash up for grabs.

DeWitt: I really debated if I wanted to use Patrick Cantlay here or at the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club in a couple of weeks. Given his recent struggles in majors, this is the best place to use him. He will be very popular this week in One and Done pools, so if you’re trailing, you might want to fade him and go in a different direction.