3 keys, score prediction for Iowa football against Michigan in Big Ten title game
IOWA CITY — The list of teams to figure out how to beat Michigan in the last two years is rather short.
TCU.
That’s it.
The Wolverines have gone 25-1 since the start of last season and never fell out of the top 10 of the Associated Press Poll or College Football Playoff rankings during that span.
Here are three keys for Iowa to have a chance at doing what Michigan’s other opponents (aside from last year’s TCU team) could not do:
Does Iowa’s offense strike early?
Iowa’s offense has often found success this season early in the first quarter.
Seven of Iowa’s 12 opening drives this season have either resulted in points or at least ended in opposing territory (before a turnover, punt or missed field goal).
In those seven games, the Hawkeyes went on to outscore their opponents, 168-78. In the other five games, Iowa was outscored, 68-48.
The importance of early offensive production is not a new concept in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes have gone 150-38 during the Kirk Ferentz era when scoring first.
Having another productive start offensively will be especially crucial for Iowa this weekend.
Iowa, which ranks among the worst in college football in several offensive categories, is not well-suited to dig itself out of an early hole against a Michigan defense that ranks among the best in the country.
Meanwhile, Michigan has a 106-26 scoring advantage in the first quarters of games this season and has yet to trail an opponent at halftime.
Can Iowa’s defense force turnovers?
Iowa’s defense has built a reputation for forcing turnovers.
"We’ve tried to adopt that as best as we can, but nobody does it better than Iowa,“ Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh said earlier in the week.
When Iowa does force turnovers, the results are usually positive. The Hawkeyes are 12-1 since the start of the 2022 season when winning the turnover battle.
The ballhawk Hawkeyes have not quite been as much of ballhawks this year, though. Iowa’s 15 turnovers gained this season are tied for 83rd-best among the 130 non-reclassifying FBS teams.
Iowa forced three turnovers against Nebraska, but the win in Lincoln followed a four-game stretch where the Hawkeyes gained only one turnover.
Considering Michigan’s well-rounded offensive attack — one that ranks atop the Big Ten in several key areas — forcing turnovers will be vital for the Hawkeyes to remain competitive.
Like early scoring, turnovers are another area where Michigan has often had the advantage this season. Michigan has won the turnover battle in nine of its 12 regular-season games.
“Our team is really good when we don’t turn the ball over,” Harbaugh said.
Does Deacon Hill exhibit a deep passing threat?
Iowa’s offense has experienced some highs and lows in the passing game during Deacon Hill’s time as the starting quarterback.
Through it all, a deep passing threat has not been a significant part of the equation.
Hill, despite his obvious arm strength, has completed only one 40-plus-yard pass this season. It was a 53-yard completion to true freshman tight end Zach Ortwerth in Iowa’s 22-0 win over Rutgers.
A few big passing plays — a task easier said than done for a quarterback coming off an 11-of-28 performance against Nebraska — would keep Michigan’s defense honest against the run.
Michigan ranks sixth in the country with only 3.02 yards allowed per carry. If Harbaugh’s defense is able to gear up for the run, Iowa’s rushing results could be futile.
Fortunately for Hill and the Hawkeyes, wide receivers Diante Vines and Kaleb Brown are expected to play on Saturday.
Prediction
Iowa has essentially no margin for error against a well-rounded Michigan team that appears to be four quarters away from another College Football Playoff berth.
