30/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets

Ten races will be run and won at The Valley this Saturday. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (12:15) Young Members Cocktail Party 2 Feb Hcp 1200m

2 Vianarra (Bet Now:$5.50) looks hard to beat for Busuttin/Young. He debuted in the Ballarat Magic Millions where he got back and took a while to wind into his work but was pretty good late in the piece in inferior ground behind Arabian Summer. That is two runs at 1000m on the bounce, so now up to 1200m, he’s hard to beat.

5 Cavity Bay (Bet Now:$9.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. She debuted over 1100m at Geelong where she was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but she picked up and was pretty good in the run to the line when second to Climate Change. Better for the run under the belt, up to 1200m, she’s going to take beating.

4 Occult (Bet Now:$23.00) is an interesting runner for James Cummings. This colt was a notable drifter in betting when debuting over 1100m at Geelong in the race mentioned above, drifting to $3.20 from $2.20, and he failed to finish the race off at all in a pretty plain debut behind Climate Change. Had jumped out super prior so forgive, forget and give another look.

Race 2. (12:45) The Cirka Care (Bm70) 1000m

6 Kusini (Bet Now:$6.00) looks a speed demon for Maher/Eustace so she clearly appeals against this lot, especially against her own sex. She ran over 1100m at Caulfield where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in to win comfortably. Back to The Valley 1000m is ideal I feel, especially with her pattern, and off a win, she’ll take beating.

1 Berry Bubbly (Bet Now:$8.00) is a beauty for Griffiths/De Kock and is in with a shout as a key threat. She won a 955m here last time, producing a good effort from on speed and was far too good for them. Looks to land on speed here, and if she leads, she’ll be hard to get past I’d suggest.

9 Croatian Belle (Bet Now:$21.00) saves her best for The Valley so with that in mind, returning here, she commands respect. She ran on Ballarat Cup Day and like some horses for the meeting, she couldn’t pick her feet up in the conditions behind Give Giggles. Back on firmer footing and back to 1000m at The Valley, ideal map, she’s in the mix.

Race 3. (13:20) Boozebud (Bm70) 3000m

3 After The Impact (Bet Now:$4.00) looks a promising stayer for Yoshitomo Shima. He has won his past three and each time, he has been dominant from on speed, the latest being a romp at this track/distance. There is more depth to this line up but hard to knock the way he’s going and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

6 Mr Fabulous (Bet Now:$11.00) is a hard fit, in form stayer for Maher/Eustace. He last ran in the Jericho Cup where he was seemingly given every chance under McCarthy but had no answers for the outstanding performance of Kiwi raider Nassak Diamond. Good record at The Valley, he appeals.

1 Budd Fox (Bet Now:$31.00) is a proven 3000m+ performer so I am not dismissing him…yet. He ran just over two weeks back at this track/distance and he didn’t fire a shot, finishing over 20 lengths from the winner after seemingly having every chance in transit. That was his first run in over five weeks so with room for improvement, he’s in with a shout.

Race 4. (13:55) Musk Creek Farm (Bm64) 1200m

4 Intrepid Eagle (Bet Now:$9.00) looks the one to beat for mine. Team McEvoy trained gelding that resumed at the midweeks at Sandown where he was given a peach steer by Allen and looked the winner when presented but being first up, condition just gave way late in the piece behind Villa Seventynine. Fitter, he should be stronger at the end and for mine, is the one.

11 Motoman (Bet Now:$5.00) is heading in the right direction. Price/Kent trained three year old that did more than enough on debut when second at Seymour before going to Sandown where he led throughout to win and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand. Last bit will test but with his racing pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

9 Imapagethree Girl (Bet Now:$11.00) is a Henry Dwyer trained mare that was 2/2 to start her career prior to racing on Ballarat Cup Day where she struggled to pick up on the bog track but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Give Giggles. 1200m should be fine and back on firmer footing, she can run a much improved race.

Race 5. (14:30) Ladbroke It! (Bm100) 2040m

1 Dunkel (Bet Now:$2.05) is a class animal for Patrick Payne that looks hard to beat second up. He resumed several weeks ago over 1800m at Caulfield where he wasn’t really suited by the sit/sprint but that said, he was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Let’srollthedice, his first run since the SA Derby. Much better set up here this time around and up in trip, good luck beating him.

Great to see 4 Monbaher (Bet Now:$12.00) at the races again for Matt Cumani. This stayer hasn’t raced since July 2 when winning at Flemington, getting the sweet sit behind the speed before angling into clear air and in a driving finish, he was too good, just. Just one jumpout leading in so he might have eyes, potentially, on Tassie, or something soon after, but first up at 2040m tells me there is intent. Watch the market.

3 Skelm (Bet Now:$23.00) is a quality stayer for Terry Kelly that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the 2022 Adelaide Cup where he didn’t pull up 100% post race in defeat behind Daqiansweet Junior. He is a winner at The Valley and was down to resume in the Ballarat Cup so while he’s got the long break between runs, he has a touch of quality to be around the mark.

Race 6. (15:05) Ladbrokes Blackbook (Bm84) 1600m

4 Space Tracker (Bet Now:$5.50) is worth a throw at the stumps. Annabel Neasham trained gelding that had trialled up super prior to resuming on Ballarat Cup Day where the track was bottomless and he couldn’t pick his feet up late in the piece behind Brung King. Much better suited on firmer footing and fitter, up to the mile, he appeals for me as an each way bet.

Back to the mile I find interesting with 2 Convener (Bet Now:$7.50) but he has a touch of quality about him. He comes back to the mile from 1900m of the Traralgon Cup where he lacked a turn of foot but stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Station One. If he can use the inside gate to advantage, I think he’s dangerous against these.

9 Real Sensation (Bet Now:$5.50) is in with a shout. Two back he ran in the Tatura Cup where he was run of his legs it seemed but he picked up, ran through the pain barrier, and was solid in the run to the line behind Soaring Eagle. He then went to Caulfield on Tuesday and pushed a good one, Plenty Of Ammo. That form reads super and he likes The Valley. Hard to beat.

Race 7. (15:40) Ladbrokes Racing Club (Bm70) 1600m

9 Naval Seal (Bet Now:$11.00) is an each way speck for me. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumed over 1400m at Caulfield where he was stirred up pre race and had to pass a vet check. I reckon he ran his race there and thus didn’t fire in the run behind My Boy Birmingham. Fitter, up to the mile, maps to do no work, he’ll do me here.

5 Raetihi (Bet Now:$3.50) is flying for Team Browne and should take beating, likely from the front. He ran last Saturday at this track/distance where he led throughout and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to score. Harder here, but he looks the leader and he becomes extremely hard to beat if this track is playing towards those up/in.

4 Riyal Hard Hat (Bet Now:$12.00) should be suited up to the mile. He resumed over 1400m at Sandown where he just looked in need of the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Who Dares. He is a second up winner, he’s suited up to 1600m and seemingly strikes a winnable race.

Race 8. (16:20) Blake Albones Memorial (Bm70) 2040m

12 Miss Tarzy (Bet Now:$7.00) is the one. Team Freedman trained mare that is heading in the right direction for the stable, looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Latest win was at this track/distance where she got better as the race went on, drawing clear late for a dominant win. Flying, maps perfect…no reason to see why she can’t win again.

11 Divine Purpose (Bet Now:$5.50) can bounce back here for Moody/Coleman. This mare has been good since being transferred from Clinton Taylor. Latest run was on Ballarat Cup Day when wide no cover on a day where up/in was gold so forgive and forget the run behind Independent Road. Back on firmer footing a big tick and off the first up run, she’ll take beating against these.

9 Pitchanun (Bet Now:$15.00) saves her best for The Valley and returning here, she’s in the mix. She ran over the mile at Caulfield last start where she just lacked the polish to go with them late, keeping in mind that was her first run in several weeks. Maps to get a sweet run in transit and up in trip, she’s in with a shout.

Race 9. (17:00) Vobis Gold Carat 1200m

6 Peace Treaty (Bet Now:$2.70) is the way I am leaning but not a whole lot of confidence. Team Freedman trained filly that looked in need of the run fresh at Cranbourne before going to Mornington where she looked a good thing on paper and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and she was too good. Maps perfect, hard fit and this is a race with little/no depth.

3 Torlaah… (Bet Now:$9.50) all you can do is win and that is what this horse did, making a winning debut at Moe where he was on speed throughout and was there to be beaten but he found to fend them off and win. This isn’t a deep city race so he doesn’t need to be anything special to measure up.

1 Magic Mogul (Bet Now:$13.00) is a key chance. He was down to run on Ballarat Cup Day but with the track getting worse with rain, he was scratched and instead runs here. His last start was at the midweeks at Sandown where he seemingly had every chance from just off the speed but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Nation State. Been up a while but is holding his form well enough and stable is flying.

Race 10. (17:40) Happy New Year From The Valley (Bm78) 1200m

2 Jungle Jim (Bet Now:$7.50) each way for me in the get out. Michael Moroney trained gelding that ran over 1200m at Caulfield last time where he was on speed throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Boldinho. Hard fit now, gets in well after the claim, should find the front and take running down.

6 Kin (Bet Now:$2.80) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This mare ran in the race mentioned above from a fortnight back. She got too far back out of her ground but loved the way she found the line late in the piece, running second. Likely goes back to last again but if she gets a drag into the race, she’ll be quite effective late.

4 Port Albert (Bet Now:$9.50) has been a model of consistency this time in and I suspect something similar will happen here. He ran over 1000m at Morphettville Parks last time out and was brave after copping heat on speed, just feeling the pinch late behind in form mare Wonderwomen. Not sure he leads, but he’s tough, hard fit and genuine.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Miss Tarzy

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Dunkel

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Naval Seal

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9

Leg Two: 12

Leg Three: 3, 6

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful.