16/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets

A ten race program has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (12:15) ive > Handicap 1000m

5 Express Yo’Self (Bet Now:$8.50) looks a key chance here for Team Yargi. This girl debuted two weeks ago here in the Merson Cooper where she got into a decent spot just off the speed and presented to be some sort of danger in the straight but she didn’t have the finale to go with promising juvenile Eneeza, running third. No horse of that quality here, I don’t think, and with natural improvement off the debut, I think she’s hard to beat.

8 Hand Crafted (Bet Now:$18.00) commands some level of respect. Forgive and forget the debut run on Cox Plate Day in the Inglis Banner. Freshened up and ran here in the Merson Cooper when hunting up to hold a forward spot and I reckon spending those early petrol tickets left her empty late when finishing fourth to Eneeza. Think she’s dangerous with a more economical run.

7 Centre Square (Bet Now:$12.00) has the engine under the hood to measure up here. He ran two weeks back in the Merson Cooper at Caulfield where he got back in the run and was held up at times but was okay late when eventually clear behind Eneeza. If he can get clear air from the outset this time around and be within range, he can finish off hard late.

Race 2. (12:45) Evergreen Turf Handicap (100) 2400m

1 Regal Power (Bet Now:$4.40) on top but they may as well run this at Casterton as a hurdle race. This guy ran last Saturday in the Ballarat Cup and he couldn’t pick his feet up on the bog track when finishing over 12 lengths away from Captain Envious. Like him back up to 2400m and the big tick for him is finding firmer footing. On top, but not betting.

4 Ferago (Bet Now:$3.90) should be around the mark for Patrick Ryan. He ran at this track/distance two weeks ago when off the speed throughout and kept chasing but seemingly had every possible when third to Ruling, beaten just under two lengths. That was his first run in five weeks so with good room for improvement, he rates highly.

3 Alhambra Lad (Bet Now:$3.40) is on the seven day back up for Patrick Payne after racing last Saturday over 2000m at Ballarat where there was a bias towards those up/in, so forgive and forget he went around behind Independent Road. He saves his best for 2400m so getting to that trip here suits and gee he finds a very thin race.

Race 3. (13:20) Millennium Services Group Handicap (70) 1600m

5 Fullproof (Bet Now:$3.50) seems the straight bat option for Team Freedman. Did more than enough fresh at Ballarat before going to The Valley where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, winning comfortably and landing decent bets in the process. Harder here, but he’s on the up with improvement…happy to be in his corner.

1 Real Sensation (Bet Now:$34.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He comes through the Tatura Cup where he was run of his legs it seemed but he picked up, ran through the pain barrier, and was solid in the run to the line behind Soaring Eagle. Like him up in trip and he has proven himself to be a Saturday metro performer previously so he’s in with a shout.

6 Proscenium Arch (Bet Now:$17.00) is the class of the field and that will carry her a long way. This mare resumed in the Pendant on Cranbourne Cup Day where she just looked in need of the run and didn’t finish her race off at all behind impressive winner Revolutionary Miss. Back to this level and up in trip, she can run a much improved race.

Race 4. (13:55) Bertocchi Simply The Best Handicap (78) 1400m

3 Quang Tri (Bet Now:$9.50) gets the nod but not really a race I want to get involved in. This mare ran at the midweeks at Sandown last time where she got a mile out of her ground and was never a winning threat but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Toronto Terrier. If she can settle closer in the run and be within range, she has the quality to do a number on these.

5 Nijiko (Bet Now:$9.50) can be hit and miss at times but when she is on, she is talented. She has been kept on ice since winning on Ararat Cup, hugging the inside under John Allen and finishing best, beating Lascars, who has since run well in town, so the form reads well enough and I do think 1400m at this level will be fine.

2 The Maggster (Bet Now:$27.00) is seemingly placed to advantage for the first time this prep. Surprised most with a win in the Subzero on Cup Day and since, has been horribly placed in the wrong races, out of her grade. She drops back to a moderate 78 here and maps to do no work so at odds, she’s a big improver.

Race 5. (14:30) Schweppes Handicap (70) 1200m

1 Is It Me (Bet Now:$3.70) hasn’t done much wrong in his eight start career and rates highly. He is three weeks between runs since winning on Cranbourne Cup Day over 1300m when given a lovely ride from the gate under Childs, slotting in to get cover, peel wider and let down nicely to win. 1200m at this level looks ideal and hard to knock the way he’s racing.

12 Black Zous (Bet Now:$21.00) looks to be in for a good prep and fitter, up to 1200m, he will take beating. He was kept very safe in betting when resuming over 1000m at Mornington where he got back off the speed and kept chasing in a strong effort when second to Philosopher. Like him up in trip and yes, this is harder, but with good upside/progression, I think he’s a definite winning chance.

6 Pink Beau Ty (Bet Now:$5.50) is a Brian McGrath trained four year old that comes here three weeks between runs since winning on Cranbourne Cup Day where he was given a 12/10 by Williams and in a driving finish, he was able to get the job done, just, in a strong effort. Has won at 1200m previously so I think with a more economical run in transit, he’ll be around the mark.

Race 6. (15:05) Quayclean Handicap (70) 2000m

9 Mercian Hymn (Bet Now:$13.00) has more upside/progression than most and I do think up to 2000m is a big tick. This guy resumed over 1800m at Caulfield where he got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, I did like the way he finished his race off behind Blazing Rebel. Might want one more and a further rise in trip, but he has talent and this race isn’t deep.

8 Slate (Bet Now:$7.00) has come back in super order for Matt Cumani and commands respect. He loved the step up in trip when winning over 2040m at The Valley last time, landing on speed and despite being challenged in the straight, he was quite strong to the line in winning. Good racing style, hard fit, in form, he appeals.

1 Blazing Rebel (Bet Now:$9.00) is creeping up in the relative weights but it is hard to knock the way he is racing at the moment. He was well specked at odds when winning over 1800m here two weeks ago, getting a lovely ride from just off the speed under Billy Pinn and finished best for a strong win. Has won up to 2100m so 2000m here is fine and he rates highly for me.

Race 7. (15:40) Neds Supersized Saturday Handicap (70) 1200m

3 Jambalaya (Bet Now:$1.90) looks well above average for James Cummings and confident he can make it 2/2 to start his career. His debut came over 1200m at The Valley where he led throughout and pretty much won like it was a barrier trial, winning comfortably without really being extended by Kah. There are likely types here, but he could be a jet and have panels on them. Keen on his prospects.

2 Nation State (Bet Now:$21.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. 2/2 this time in, winning first up in a Ballarat maiden before going to 1200m at Sandown where he led throughout and despite being challenged in the straight, he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here, but he’ll give himself every chance.

8 Loose On Gin (Bet Now:$27.00) is an improver back to 1200m. He is five weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Flemington where he got back in the run and made up minimal headway behind a promising animal, Schwarz. This looks more his level and off the runs prior to that last start, they were good enough to give this a shake.

Race 8. (16:20) Hyland Race Colours Handicap (70) 1400m

3 Bel Air (Bet Now:$4.20) is knocking on the door to win for Team Freedman. He ran three weeks ago on Cranbourne Cup Day where he got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Is It Me. That was his first run in a couple of months so fitter, up to 1400m, think it all points to him.

4 Tasman Park (Bet Now:$5.50) is capable with his best for Michael Moroney. He was a couple of months between runs when racing over 1500m at Cranbourne. He was held up at times but overall, I thought he had his chance and he wasn’t too bad in defeat behind impressive winner Jimmysstar. That form should hold up and with good upside, potentially a more positive ride, he’s a threat for sure.

10 He’s Beset (Bet Now:$6.50) looks like he will win races down under for Nick Ryan and that could start here. He was very good in defeat on Cranbourne Cup, closing off well from off the speed but was no match late for a potential Stakes class horse of the future, Jimmysstar. That was his second run since arriving from NZ so third up now, he should be at his peak and strikes a winnable race.

Race 9. (17:00) Slow Robotics Handicap 1400m

5 My Khalifa (Bet Now:$12.00) is worth an each way ticket for mine. Richards/Moyle trained galloper from Adelaide that is a 1400m specialist and gets to that trip for the first time this prep after two runs at 1200m where each time he has been solid but has looked a horse wanting more ground, which he gets here. Maps ideally, hard fit now, he’s worth an each way ticket.

4 Bermadez (Bet Now:$4.40) rates highly here for me given how well he races on the fresh side. He resumed at Flemington on Cup Day and closed off with real purpose late from off the speed when second to Pascero, beaten narrowly. He was down to run last Saturday at Ballarat but has waited for firmer footing, which he gets here, and on the fresh side, appeals.

1 Not An Option (Bet Now:$15.00) is dangerous back on firmer footing. He ran two weeks back in the Kevin Heffernan here when just off the speed throughout and he was there to threaten but on the wet track, he couldn’t pick his feet up so forgive and forget behind King Magnus. Think he’s much better on top of the ground so with conditions to suit here, he can bounce back hard.

Race 10. (17:40) Catanach's Jewellers Handicap (84) 1200m

7 Prowling (Bet Now:$9.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Greg Eurell. He ran two weeks ago at this track/distance and was far from disgraced in defeat after getting back in the run when close up in defeat behind in form mare Ghaanati. The depth here isn’t as deep and being third up, he should just about be ready to go. Nearly D-Day I’d suggest.

10 Jungle Jim (Bet Now:$14.00) is an improver. Michael Moroney trained sprinter that resumed three weeks ago in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne when wide no cover for the trip and that early burn told late, tiring to finish down the track behind Taunting, who came out and won again last Saturday, so the form reads very well, and fitter, up in trip, he can run a much improved race.

18 Shohei (Bet Now:$7.00) is a big improver here for Team Hawkes. This mare resumed at Rosehill a few weeks back where the market took a set against her, saying she would need the run, and that’s how it panned out, settling on speed and tiring badly the last 100m behind Salisano. Better for the run under the belt, she appeals big time here because she does have a touch of quality about her.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Jambalaya

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Fullproof

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 My Khalifa

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 3, 4, 10, 13

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9, 11

Leg Four: 7, 8, 10, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.