2/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets

The Brisbane Summer Carnival continues at Doomben this Saturday for George Moore Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is heavy (8) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (13:03) Widdenstud Hcp 1200m

I want to give 2 Cutting Edge (Bet Now:$17.00) another chance. He was met with market support two weeks ago at the Sunny Coast but he did plenty wrong in the straight and threw away any chance of being a threat, finishing down the track behind Poster Girl. Robbie Dolan is a great booking because he is a strong rider and can straighten the horse out. He’ll do me in a competitive race.

3 Mishani Aloha (Bet Now:$5.50) is three weeks between runs since leading throughout to win at this track/distance where she got complete control and she was much too good in a strong display. She has ticked the 1200m box, maps perfect once again and the depth here, as a whole, isn’t overly deep.

7 Pierata’s Gem (Bet Now:$8.00) is a filly who I think has an engine under the hood. She debuted two weeks back at the Sunny Coast where she got back, run off her legs, and was never a winning factor, but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off late in the piece behind Poster Girl. Better for the run under the belt, dangerous prospect for mine if she’s within range on the turn.

Race 2. (13:38) The Eagle Way 2000m

4 Shy Guy (Bet Now:$4.80) has been set for this race IMO. He was several weeks between runs when racing over the mile at the Sunny Coast a fortnight back where he was close up in defeat. Just lacked the change up speed to go with them late in the piece. He is racing like 2000m will be ideal and he has the Chris Waller polish.

5 Red Defcon (Bet Now:$6.50) is racing like she will eat up 2000m. Matty Kropp trains this filly, who ran over the mile two weeks ago at the Sunny Coast and worked home with real purpose late in the piece when a narrow second to More Trouble, beaten narrowly in a blanket finish. That is two runs at the mile under the belt now so I think the grounding is there to say she’ll appreciate getting to 2000m.

6 Winsome Star (Bet Now:$5.50) does a bit wrong but I think he has the engine under the hood to measure up. This colt ran on the home deck at the Sunny Coast two weeks back here he got back to near last in the run and although he was never really a threat, he did make up ground and was pretty good in defeat behind More Trouble. He finds the line like 2000m will be okay and has upside/progression.

Race 3. (14:13) Xxxx Country Stampede Final 1110m

7 Mister Larrabee (Bet Now:$13.00) is flying for John Manzelmann and no reason why he can’t take this out. Produced a massive win against the track pattern three back at Ewan before winning at Rockhampton. He then went to Townsville two weeks ago and was one of the eye catchers of the meeting when closing off with purpose, finishing a close up fourth to Cochrane. That was his first run in a month so with room for improvement, he rates highly.

14 I Am Fearless (Bet Now:$4.20) is a recent city winner, which usually stands up in races like this. That win came two back at Eagle Farm when leading throughout before going to Chinchilla when sitting off the speed and finishing best to win again, his fourth victory from his last five runs. Maps ideally and despite 1110m being a slight query, he commands respect.

11 Miss Hoff (Bet Now:$11.00) has a shocking draw to overcome but she is a mare that is flying. She has won three on the bounce, her last two coming at Charleville where each win has seen her giving them a start and a beating in a sharp display. The gate makes things horrendous for her, she’ll likely be near last in the run but can produce a brilliant finale.

Race 4. (14:48) Pierata Plate 1200m

3 Defiant Spirit (Bet Now:$3.20) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. He resumed on the home deck at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago where the market said he was there to win and the ride backed up that support, with real intent from the outset and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed late by Outweighed. I reckon with a bunny to chase, a more conservative steer, he’ll be far better off.

5 Addriel (Bet Now:$5.00) is bursting to win. Annabel Neasham trained gelding that ran four weeks ago at this track/distance where he did a bit too much work in the run to land on speed and just couldn’t quite finish the race off, nabbed on the peg by Golden Decade. The time off to recover from that I do like for him and he is the one with race fitness on his side compared to most.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 1 Mishani Renegade (Bet Now:$16.00), who resumed over 1000m two weeks back at the Sunny Coast. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he made up headway and was good in defeat, beaten just over two lengths by Outweighed. Has run well at 1200m as a juvenile and is dangerous if he can settle closer in the run.

Race 5. (15:28) Country Cups Challenge Final 1600m

8 Fire King (Bet Now:$7.00) seems a straight bat option for Olivia Cairns. This guy comes here off a spank job win two weeks ago at Toowoomba where he gave them a start and a beating in a sharp display, winning comfortably over the mile. He’s had two mile runs under the belt to toughen him up for this assignment, he’s in form, maps perfect…the one to beat.

2 Art By Concorde (Bet Now:$6.00) won the Battle Of The Bush earlier in the year and will look to do the double. He has won three on the bounce since, winning at Emerald before victories at Mitchell and Yeppoon, the latest win being four weeks ago. 1600m is the query, especially with the gate and weight, but he is the class and that will carry him a long way.

14 Vivenzo (Bet Now:$11.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but Michael Morrison has this gelding absolutely flying at the moment. He put together wins at Gordonvale and Innisfail before racing at Innisfail again when 2000m back to 1500m and was solid late without threatening behind impressive winner Speed Legend. Back up in trip is a positive and with luck from the gate, he can win.

Race 6. (16:08) Tails Stakes 1600m

3 Acquitted (Bet Now:$3.80) looks the one on the up and maps ideally for Kris Lees. He resumed on Hunter Day at Newcastle where he got back and held up but got clear and drove hard late in a good return behind Ka Bling. Can settle much closer in the run from the good draw here, he’ll appreciate 1600m and be strong at the end. Hard to beat.

4 Knight’s Choice (Bet Now:$SP.00) has had a frustrating prep but I am convinced he is racing well. He ran two weeks ago in the Mooloolaba Cup at the Sunny Coast where he wasn’t given much hope with the ride from Lloyd, who I thought was too passive on the horse and left him with too much to do behind Dune Forty Five. Think with a more positive ride, he’ll take holding out.

6 Jetty (Bet Now:$12.00) is a slight query at a strong mile but with a soft run on speed, I think he’ll be okay. He ran two weeks back at the Sunny Coast in the Mooloolaba Cup where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when nabbed late by Dune Forty Five. If he leads and gets control, I think he’ll take running down.

Race 7. (16:48) Mode Stakes 1200m

3 Abounding (Bet Now:$3.60) looks clearly the one. Rob Heathcoate trained filly that resumed over this track/distance five weeks ago where she was the subject of strong late market support and she justified it with a commanding win. Kept on ice for the Summer Carnival, she maps perfect, she’ll be strong late…like her a lot here.

5 Tiger Shark (Bet Now:$7.50) should take beating here for Nat McCall. This filly resumed on her home deck at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago over 1000m when back in the run and spotting those in front a tidy start but she finished off her race with real purpose late, running a narrow fourth to Outweighed. Her 1200m wins when last in work were outstanding so up to that trip here, she appeals big time as a key threat.

2 Party For Two (Bet Now:$5.50) is a slight query at 1200m but she has class on her side. Arrogant first up win at Eagle Farm before going to the Sunny Coast where she was near the speed and fought on bravely in defeat. Just couldn’t quite get there, finishing third. As I said, I think 1200m is the query, but with an economical run in transit, she’s got the class to be around the mark.

Race 8. (17:28) George Moore Stakes 1200m

61kg is an ask, but I think class gets 1 Rothfire (Bet Now:$3.70) home. He resumes for Rob Heathcoate after a two run Moonee Valley prep, the second run seeing him run a somewhat disappointing fifth behind star mare imperatriz. Returns home for the Summer and his recent trial win was electric. He’s ready to rock and roll I’d suggest.

7 Nettuno (Bet Now:$3.80) is a sharp animal for Tony Gollan when right and he looks to be in for a big prep given he was a dominant winner of the Swiss Ace at the Sunny Coast first up, letting down with real purpose from off the speed to win and win well. That was at 1000m and I do think 1200m will be fine. Off the win and the ease of it, he’s hard to beat.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 10 Ef Troop (Bet Now:$SP.00). He resumed two weeks back in the Swiss Ace at the Sunny Coast and while he was never threatening Nettuno, he kept finding the line in a good return, finishing third. He’ll love the rise to 1200m, he’s got good upside to come and if he can settle closer in the run, he’s dangerous.

Race 9. (18:10) Vale Wayne Purchase Hcp 2000m

1 Great House (Bet Now:$6.00) is racing like he will love the rise to 2000m. He was four weeks between runs and stayed at the mile when racing two weeks ago at the Sunny Coast where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he kept on and was solid to the line behind Dune Forty Five. Up to 2000m, fitter, Waller polish and for mine, he strikes a very winnable race.

9 Head Of State (Bet Now:$10.00) has returned in super order for Chris Waller and rates highly. He ran a fortnight back in the Mooloolaba Cup where he was an eye catcher from the back, closing off with real purpose late in the piece behind Dune Forty Five, finishing a narrow third. He will love getting to 2000m, and with enormous upside to come, he rates highly.

2 Dark Dream (Bet Now:$SP.00) has a fab record at Doomben and strikes a winnable race compared to what he faced last time in The Beauford at Newcastle when on speed and he gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through. That said, he battled away really well in defeat behind Stroke Of Luck. Back to this level, back in trip, he appeals.

Race 10. (18:40) Aqwa Constructions Plate (C6) 1350m

12 Starzam (Bet Now:$14.00) is a leading contender. Kelly Schweida trains this gelding, who resumed with a bang at Ipswich when winning impressively before going to Doomben three weeks ago where he didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight and finished with plenty up the sleeve behind The Drover. If he gets the rub of the green, he can take this out.

9 The Drover (Bet Now:$7.50) is three weeks between runs for Nat McCall since winning at this track/distance, where he got into a lovely spot behind the speed before angling clear and gee he let down with purpose to win and win well in a sharp effort. He can be hit and miss at times but off that last start effort, he’ll take beating here.

1 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now:$23.00) is a Tony Gollan trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since losing the rider in the Rocky Cup where he was building into the race nicely but clipped heels and dumped Angela Jones. Not a noted fresh horse but his recent trial was very good and if they overdo it in front, he can launch over the top.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Abounding

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Defiant Spirit

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Great House

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Four: 1, 9, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful