A 16-1 tip for the Topham Chase at Aintree

One of the keys to successful ante-post betting it to choose horses whose trainers are skilled at targeting big races. If you lead a horse to the well too many times, the well will eventually run dry. The trainers who pick up the biggest prizes season after season know that they can only get any one horse to peak form for two, perhaps three, big races in any given calendar year.

It is for this reason that I have huge admiration for the talents of two men who share a trainer’s licence for the first time this season. That respect is not simply built on the fact that last week Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero provided me with a winning tip at the Cheltenham Festival: Iroko put up at 9-1 to win the last race on the final day.

It is much more that the duo have already shown their ability to target a big race with one of their horses and then deliver him, or her, in the best possible condition to win the prize. The statistics don’t lie: Greenall and Guerriero have had 287 runners this season of which 54 have won. That’s an outstanding winning strike rate of 19 per cent. There can’t be many, if any, other trainers with an overall 100 per cent strike rate at the Cheltenham Festival even if that is just one winner from their one runner to date. Make no mistake, this pair will be big players on the racing scene for decades to come.

On 14 April, the day before the Randox Grand National, their horse GESSKILLE is due to contest the Randox-sponsored Topham Handicap Chase over the famous Aintree brush fences. This seven-year-old gelding is an excellent jumper and has twice safely negotiated the course this season, first when second to Al Dancer in the Boylesport-sponsored Grand Sefton Handicap Chase and then when filling the same spot behind Ashtown Lad in the Boylesport Becher Handicap Chase.

That second runner-up spot was all the more impressive as Gesskille missed the start and had a lot of ground to make up. The horse will be back to a shorter trip in the Topham, which may not be ideal, and, being a hold-up horse, will need luck in a large field of up to 30 runners. He also disappointed at Doncaster last time out in late December but I am prepared to forgive him that run.

He goes well fresh and he has clearly be kept for the Topham with a racecourse break of more than three months. Gesskille makes plenty of each-way appeal at odds of 16-1 with bet365, paying four places. There will be more places available on the day with bookmakers but I doubt that he will go off at 16-1 provided he remains fit and well for another three weeks.

Al Dancer, who had not run since winning the Grand Sefton, is a worthy favourite for the Topham as he also goes well after a lengthy break from the racetrack. Ashtown Lad may also contest the Topham but Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old gelding also has entries in the Boylesport Irish Grand National and the Aintree National. Willie Mullins, who likes to target the Topham, has no less than six entries in the race, although expect that total to be much reduced come 14 April.

Gesskille is my only suggested wager of the week. There is, however, some interesting racing at Newbury and Kelso tomorrow and I will be carefully observing Hill Sixteen’s run at Kelso (3.35 p.m.). I make Sandy Thomson’s ten-year-old gelding a live outsider for the Randox Grand National on 15 April if he makes the ‘cut’ for the race and if the ground is soft. This is clearly his prep race for Aintree after a wind operation in the new year. Tomorrow’s trip may be on the short side for him but I would be disappointed if he did not run well, with at least a top four finish.

Pending bets:

1 point each way Gesskille at 16-1 in the Topham Chase, paying 1/4 odds, four places.

1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.

1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

Settled:

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1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.

2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.

1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th).  – 2 points.

1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.

1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.

1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.

2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.

1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.

1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points

1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40 p.m.) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.

1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 19.2 points.

1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Fifth. + 0.5 points.

1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 6th. – 2 points.

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. 3rd. + 4 points.

1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. + 3 points.

1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Dashel Drasher at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 3rd. + 4.6 points.

1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Magic Daze at 11-1 for the Mares Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three place. Refused to race. – 2 points.

1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.

1 point each way Iroko at 9-1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 10.8 points.

1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. P. – 2 points.

1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. +5.6 points.

1 point each way Secret Reprieve at 10-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. P. – 2 points.

1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 33-1 for the Uttoxeter 3.35 p.m., 1/5 odds, three places. U. – 2 points.

2022-3 jumps season, running total + 44.5 points on all tips.

My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’is your chosen regular stake).