Tips for two weekend handicaps at Doncaster and Cheltenham

Many of my best bets over the years have been placed after watching replays of past races, looking out for horses that fared well despite bad luck in running. I have rewatched last year’s Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase several times and there is no doubt that MISTER COFFEY was a desperately unlucky loser at the Cheltenham Festival.

The gelding lost several lengths when he was badly hampered by a faller as early as the second fence. He lost all momentum and position so, all in all, he did superbly under a lovely ride from Sam Waley-Cohen, to be second to Chambard, beaten just two and a half lengths.

Every cloud, however, has a silver lining and that and other defeats meant that Nicky Henderson’s gelding remained qualified for novice chases for a second season, whereas if he had won a race this would not have been the case.

I was slightly surprised to see Mister Coffey declared for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster tomorrow (3.15 p.m.) where the ground is described as ‘good’. He definitely prefers a softer surface and he has been withdrawn from races three times this season because the ground was too fast.

However, my recommendation is to back him each way for the three-mile handicap at 15/2 with Sky Bet, paying five places. If connections decide to run him, then they will be satisfied that he can handle a terrain faster than he ideally prefers. But, of course, if he is withdrawn we will simply get our money back.

I have also had this horse in mind all season for the National Hunt Chase for novices on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival. So I was pleased to see that contest is Mister Coffey’s only entry at the Festival – so far, at least. He could, of course, also be entered for one of the Festival handicaps, notably the Kim Muir again, or the Ultima Handicap Chase.

But I am optimistic the shrewd Lambourn handler has, like me, also had the National Hunt Chase in mind for Mister Coffey for some time. Henderson, after all, is convinced his charge is a stout stayer and that he could even be a Grand National contender in a year’s time.

As already stated, the horse is best with cut in the ground but with watering of the course guaranteed if necessary for the opening day, Mister Coffey should be certain to race on ‘good to soft’ ground or softer. Any heavy rain would be a bonus.

For the more cautious, William Hill has priced him up at 14-1 Non Runner No Bet for the race but, on the grounds that MISTER COFFEY will hopefully run in the National Hunt Chase rather than a handicap, be brave and take the 25-1 each way with pretty much all bookies.

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Cross-country chase races are Marmite events – punters either love them or hate them. I am definitely in the former camp and have made money in these races over the years, particularly at the Cheltenham Festival.

My number one principle when betting in these contests is to stick with runners with proven cross-country ability, rather than to back better class animals in the hope that they will be able to adapt to the unique fences. That latter strategy can be a route to the poor house because there are an awful lot of talented horses who dislike the fences.

It is with this reasoning in mind that my second recommended bet this weekend, and my third in all, is to back BACK ON THE LASH in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham tomorrow (12.40 p.m.).

Martin Keighley’s nine-year-old gelding is a course and distance winner and gets a lot of weight from some of his shorter-priced rivals because this is a handicap. Sean Bowen gets a good tune out of the horse and 7-1 each way five places with Sky Bet is attractive in my view.

The good news for all racing fans is that, after our cold spell, the prospects of racing are looking promising up and down the country for tomorrow. The Cheltenham card, in particular, is mouth-watering fare if gets the go-ahead. Good luck to one and all.

Pending bets:

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.

1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

Settled:

1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.

2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.

1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4th).  – 2 points.

1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.

1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.

1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 16.4 points.

2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.

1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.

1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2022-3 jumps season, running total + 19.4 points.

My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’is your chosen regular stake).