A 22-1 tip for day one of the Cheltenham Festival
Few people enjoy the thrill of a winning punt more than me but there are times when betting becomes (almost) irrelevant. Tomorrow at 3.30 p.m. will be one of them. That’s when seven runners will line up for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, the first championship race of this week’s four-day Cheltenham Festival.
I will be at the course to see what I expect to be a hurdling masterclass from Constitution Hill, Nicky Henderson’s vastly-talented six-year-old gelding and the odds-on favourite for the Grade 1 showpiece. To date his racecourse record is flawless: five wins from five races including victory in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting a year ago. Then he was heavily eased at the finish, yet still won by 22 lengths or more from the rest of the field.
That was impressive but all the signs are that he could deliver a performance even more special tomorrow – one that will put him right up with the best hurdlers of modern times. However, as a punter, his odds of around 1-3 are prohibitive as so much can go wrong in jump racing. State Man is the horse most likely to beat him tomorrow but, at the odds available last month, I put up I Like to Move It each way at 20-1 because three places were then on offer. With only seven runners now declared for the race, that’s no longer the case, and bookies are paying just two runners for a place tomorrow.
The opening contest tomorrow is the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 p.m.), in which Facile Vega and Marine Nationale are rightly at the head of the betting market. However, the one bet I am going to recommend today is another Irish-trained horse at a much bigger price: DOCTOR BRAVO.
This six-year-old gelding has been the subject of some glowing gallop reports from trainer Gordon Elliott since his last run when third at Gowran Park last month. He also has the benefit of Cheltenham specialist Davy Russell in the saddle. Back him each way at 22-1 with any bookie, notably Coral and Unibet offering four places.
I am not suggesting any more bets for tomorrow but I have already put up three other horses antepost for races today: that’s Nassalam in the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50 p.m.), Mister Coffey in the WellChild National Hunt Challenge Cup (5.30 p.m.) and Metamorpheus in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50pm). All have a chance of Festival glory and I am particularly sweet on Nassalam now that there has been plenty of rain over the past week because he has a definite preference for soft ground.
Irish-trained horses are likely to dominate the Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (2.10 p.m.) at the expense of Jonbon for the home team. Marginal preference would be for the favourite El Fabiolo for the Willie Mulllins/Paul Townend trainer/jockey combination who will be winning plenty of races this week.
The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (4.10 p.m.) is a fascinating affair as I would give nine of the ten runners some sort of chance in the race, the exception being Midnight Ginger who is likely to be outclassed.
Once again, I am going to keep my powder dry for later in the week and not bet in the race, but I would love to see Epatante win for Nicky Henderson as she seems almost as good as ever. Her last three runs have seen her twice defeated by stablemate Constitution Hill – no disgrace in that – before winning an easier contest at Doncaster last time out. Expect to see a tearful trainer in the winners’ enclosure if she can land this race at the age of nine and three years after winning the Champion Hurdle.
One things is certain: there is lovely mix of quality and quantity on day one of the Festival and there should be plenty for racing fans to enjoy tomorrow and for the rest of the week. Meanwhile, I will be back on Spectator Life late tomorrow to offer my thoughts on day two
Pending bets:
1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
The ignorance of Gary Lineker
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40 p.m.) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 19.2 points.
1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5th. + 0.5 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 41.5 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’is your chosen regular stake).
