A 28-1 bet for day three at Cheltenham
The rain continues to fall at Cheltenham and so it is vital to look for horses that like soft ground on day three of the Festival tomorrow. Equine talent that needs the ground similar to the terrain of the M25 to show their best form might as well stay in their stables.
One horse that could not have it wet enough is DASHEL DRASHER in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30pm). At first glance, his chances look easy to dismiss: he is ten years old and from an unfashionable Somerset yard with a little-known jockey taking on the biggest stables in Britain and Ireland.
However, if Dashel Drasher, trained by the capable Jeremy Scott and ridden by the improving Rex Dingle, can get into a nice rhythm at the front of the field, he could definitely outrun his odds. Back him at 28-1 each way with Sky Bet or Betfred because they are two of the few bookies paying four places. His odds are 33-1 elsewhere but with only three places.
I had expected to put up Banbridge in the Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30pm) but he prefers good ground. Instead, I now prefer the chances of Paul Nicholls’ course winner Stage Star but, with so many top horses from the other side of the Irish Sea, I won’t be betting in this one.
The 24-runner Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2.10pm) is full of ‘plot horses’ from Britain and Ireland. Nicky Henderson seems to hold a strong hand with three runners of which I think Walking on Air has the best chance of landing the prize. But this race is a bookies’ benefit and it is not for me.
For the Ryanair Chase (2.50pm), I put up French Dynamite some time ago but, sadly, he is one of the many horses I have tipped this week that needs good ground to show his best. I don’t think he will win on soft ground. If had to bet now, I would suggest an each way play on Janidil who will handle the ground and seems to be improving even at nine years old. However, if he runs to his best, Shishkin will win at short odds and so again I am not backing anything in this contest.
I have been hugely impressed by the riding of young Michael O’Sullivan this week and I am sure he is going to get to the top of this sport as a jockey. He rides Haut En Couleurs in the Magners Plate Handicap Chase (4.10pm) but odds of around 7-1 are not big enough for me to suggest backing him. As a neutral, I would love to see the old warrior Coole Cody land the prize at the grand old age of 12.
Luccia has long been a ‘talking horse’ from the Lambourn yard of Nicky Henderson but she has done it on the track too: four wins from just four races. However, her odds are too short to back her in the Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices” Hurdle (4.50pm). Jamie Snowden’s six-year-old mare You Wear It Well should outrun her odds each way after two wins and an even better second to Hermes Allen from her last three runs. I was tempted to put her up as a bet but I am not sure she is good enough to win this Grade 2 contest.
I would definitely have put up Lord Accord as a top bet at odds of up to 40-1 in the last race, the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (5.30pm). However, he is yet another horse who favours good ground but won’t get it tomorrow and so I will keep my powder dry yet again.
My two horses tips today were Camprond, put up at 20-1, who finished a close third and would have won on better ground, and Elixir de Nutz, who finished unplaced. That provided a very modest 1 point profit on the day.
I will be back on Spectator Life late tomorrow to offer my thoughts on day four, including the big race of the week, the Boodles Gold Cup. There are some good bets for Friday on horses that do like cut in the ground so there is plenty to look forward to for the last day of the Festival.
Pending bets:
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Dashel Drasher at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places.
What striking doctors don’t like to admit
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places. 3. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25pm paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55pm, with Skybet. 1. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 on Sunday, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3pm tomorrow, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3pm race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40pm race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15pm, 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40pm, 1/5 odds, five places. 1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30pm, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40pm) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3pm, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1. + 19.2 points.
1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5th odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 6th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. 3. + 4 points.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, five places. 3. + 3 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 38.5 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
