Two more tips for the last day of Cheltenham
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup day is almost upon us and the rain-softened ground means the distance of 3 miles 2 furlongs plus will not be for the faint of heart or for those horses whose stamina is in doubt.
In the Grade 1 feature race tomorrow (3.30pm), the favourite Galopin Des Champs oozes class but he is not guaranteed to stay the trip, especially in these conditions. In contrast, both Noble Yeats, last year’s Grand National winner, and Stattler, last year’s winner of the National Hunt Challenge Cup, will relish a stamina test but may not have the class required to win this championship contest.
I put up two horses for the race all of two months ago. Hewick, a horse that needs good ground to be at his best, has drifted in price on account of the recent rain and would prefer in to dry up overnight. In contrast, Royal Pagaille wants as much of the wet stuff as possible as he can’t have the going soft enough. However, the poor form of the Venetia Williams yard is worrying, whereas this time last year her horses were running out of their skin.
I am not going to put up anything else in the race although, especially with the Lucinda Russell yard in such fine form, I can see Ahoy Senor outrunning his odds of up to 25-1.
I am happy enough with the bets that I have already put up for the
McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (2.10pm) and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (5.30pm).
The softish ground will be new to Gin Coco in the County Hurdle so that must be a concern but it will delight the connections of Might I, in the Martin Pipe, often known by gamblers as the ‘getting out stakes’ because it is the last race of the four-day meeting. Both horses are trained by Harry Fry, whose only other runner at the meeting, Love Envoi, finished an excellent second in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday. I make Might I each way the best bet of the final day.
However, I want to go in double handed in the Martin Pipe by also backing IROKO for two trainers who share the same licence, Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. This five-year-old gelding is their only Festival runner this week and he is owned by JP McManus. The pair of trainers have a superb strike rate for the season, with nearly 20 per cent of all their runners winning. Iroko will love the rain-softened ground so back him each way at 9-1 with William Hill, paying five places.
Willie Mullins has an embarrassment of riches in the JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30pm) fielding no less than seven of the 15 runners, including the first four in the market. Marginal preference is for Lossiemouth, even though she lost her unbeaten record at Leopardstown last month.
However, I won’t be backing anything in this race or two more races on the card. The 20-runner Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2.50pm) is too difficult for me and I know little about the 24 runners in the St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (4.10pm), the highlight of the week for hunting and point to point fraternity.
My final bet of the festival comes in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (4.50pm). It’s a competitive affair but I hope that the step up in trip will suit MAGIC DAZE for the in-form Henry de Bromhead yard and who will have Rachael Blackmore in the saddle. Back Magic Daze each way at 11-1, with one of the many bookies offering these odds for three places.
Those who backed my tip, Dashel Drasher, in the Stayers’ Hurdle earlier today certainly had a run for their money and I was baffled when he drifted to 80-1 shortly before the off. Anyway, followers of my tips had another profitable day despite not backing a winner. The best of luck for tomorrow.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
The cult of Morse
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 11-1 for the Mares Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three place.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Iroko at 9-1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, four places. 3. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25pm paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55pm, with Skybet. 1. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 on Sunday, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3pm, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3pm race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40pm race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15pm, 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40pm, 1/5 odds, five places. 1. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30pm, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40pm) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3pm, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1. + 19.2 points.
1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5th odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 6th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. 3. + 4 points.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, five places. 3. + 3 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dashel Drasher at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 2. + 4.6 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 41.1 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
