Air Force vs. San Jose State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Are Spartans Live Underdogs?

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20 September 2023

Air Force vs. San Jose State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Are Spartans Live Underdogs?

Our best Air Force vs. San JoseState prediction has you covered for the final matchup on Friday’s busy college football schedule as we look for the best college football odds.

The Air Force Falcons are looking for their second straight win when they visit the San Jose State Spartans.

AirForce is one of two undefeated Mountain West teams, with all three wins coming bydouble digits, including last week’s conference opener against Utah State.

On the flip side, San Jose State is just 1-3 on the season, but two of those defeats came at the hands of ranked Pac-12 teams (USC and Oregon State).

To help with your college football best bets for Friday, hereis our best Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college footballbetting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Air Force vs. San Jose Stateprediction: Week 4

San Jose State +3.5(-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

SanJose State ended a three-game losing streak in this rivalry with a 17-6 homevictory in 2020, and we expect it to defend the triple-option and becompetitive again.

AirForce entered last week ranked 132nd nationally in average time elapsed betweenplays, so we will be enticed any time we can get points against a team thatplays so methodically.

TheFalcons' defense looked like a unit that ranked in the top 10 in success rate allowed, holding Utah State to just seven first-half points. And while AirForce raced out to a 29-0 lead just four minutes into the second quarter, wefind it a little overvalued, considering Utah State was not built to stack upwell against its triple-option scheme after entering ranked outside the top 65in rush success rate allowed.

SanJose State rushing stats will be skewed after 4.7 and 5.6 yards per carryagainst USC and Oregon State, respectively. And while the Spartans allowed 6.4yards per carry against Toledo, they dominated time of possession by nearly 10 minutes after forcing the Rockets into three turnovers.

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Weare confident in the Spartans' offense keeping pace with Air Force in this game,as they carved the Trojans' defense up in Week 1 for 2.2 points per drive, 6.0yards per play, and 5.0 yards per rush. An Air Force defense that has allowedjust 10.3 points per game through three games has not seen a quarterback nearlyas talented as San Jose State’s Chevan Cordeiro, who has a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio andranks eighth in passer rating in the conference despite playing a brutal earlynon-conference schedule.

Thisis a three-star play, as Air Force went 2-2 ATS as the road favorite last season,and San Jose State has covered three of four games this year. The Spartans alsoare coming off a season in which they had a plus-65 point differential, the team’sbest in 10 seasons.

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Air Force vs. San Jose State best odds

Allof our best sportsbooks are in unison with the spread of +3.5, but what sets FanDuel apart (and, to some extent, DraftKings) is the cheaper -105 odds to back theunderdogs. San Jose State has covered the spread in the last three meetings byan average of 9.7 points per game.

Air Force vs. San Jose Stateodds

BetMGMand FanDuel had the highest opening spreads of Air Force -4.5, while DraftKingsand Caesars opened at -4 on Sunday afternoon. Caesars got as low as -3 onmultiple occasions (Sunday night and again on Monday morning), but that number didn't last long before Air Force backers drove the number back up to -3.5.DraftKings and BetMGM also got to -3 briefly, while the line has been -3.5 orhigher the last few days at FanDuel.

Thereis a slightly wider range among our best sports betting apps with regard to the total.FanDuel and BetRivers are on the low end at 46.5 (both are juiced to the Overat -115 and -113, respectively), while BetMGM is on the high end at 47.5. Allother shops have settled on a total of 47. While there is a one-pointdifference in the totals, there has hardly been any fluctuation in the numberat any shop since Sunday afternoon, despite the Under getting twice as manywagers (2/1 betting split).

FanDuelhas the highest price for Air Force’s moneyline odds (-182), while Caesars ison the low end at -164.