Astros vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Look to Chris Bassitt, Toronto for run line bet

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a sixth win in seven games tonight as they face the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto evened its four-game set against Houston last night on the back of one stellar starter, and it’ll try to keep the good times rolling with another. We’re looking for Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays to cover a -1.5 spread as our best bet.

MLB odds as of 8:50 a.m. ET on 06/07/23.

Astros vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)

When Kevin Gausman is on the mound, it’s pretty easy to make a case for backing the Blue Jays. Right now, the same rule applies when Bassitt gets the start.

Toronto’s biggest free agent signing last winter has also been its best. Bassitt holds top-30 rankings among MLB’s qualified starters in ERA (3.41), opponent batting average (.196) and win probability added (0.62).

The waters were choppy at the start of his Jays tenure, but the storm has since calmed. Over his past nine starts, Bassitt has posted a 2.30 ERA while holding opponents to a .172/.258/.306 slash line.

More importantly for our purposes, the Blue Jays are 6-3 in that span — and all six wins have covered the run line.

Toronto has covered a -1.5 spread in six of its past nine games overall, too.

Thanks to Gausman’s dazzling start last night, the Blue Jays’ bullpen should be all systems go (save for Trevor Richards, who has thrown in three of the past four games). But hopefully Bassitt doesn’t need much relief help anyway.

Key stat: Bassitt tossed 6.1 scoreless innings in a 4-2 win over Houston back in April.

Quick pick

Blue Jays +2, under 10 runs (-104): For another option that gets us close to plus money, we’re giving Toronto (and the under) some cushion.

The Jays have pushed or covered a +2 line in each of Bassitt’s past 11 starts, as all four of the team’s losses in that span have come by exactly two runs.

As for the under, the Astros have pushed or covered this line in six of their past eight games, while the Jays have done so in eight of nine.