Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds, picks, predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies embark on a season-long 10-game road trip that begins Thursday in Atlanta against the NL East-leading Braves at 7:20 p.m. at Truist Park.
It's been a struggle for the Phillies as they have dropped 13 of their last 20 games heading into Wednesday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
After a 25-11 start, the Braves have cooled off a bit recently, going 4-8 in their previous 12 games.
Here are my picks and predictions for each matchup of this four game series with the best odds from different sportsbooks around the area.
Thursday, 7:20 p.m.: Aaron Nola (4-3, 4.31 ERA) vs. Undecided
Nola will take the mound for his seventh road start of the season. He had his best performance his last time out when he went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits, and finished with a season-high 10 strikeouts in a 12-3 victory over the Cubs. Nola won three of five starts against the Braves in 2022 and had one of his best outings in Atlanta nearly a year ago to the day. The Phillies' ace struck out 10 and allowed only one run on five hits in 8 1/3 innings on May 26, 2022.
The Braves have yet to name a starter for the opening game.
Even though we don't know who will pitch for Atlanta yet, I'm banking on the Phillies to take the first game of this matchup behind a quality start from Nola.
Prediction: Phillies 4, Braves 1
Friday, 7:20 p.m.: Taijuan Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA) vs. Jared Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA)
It's been a tough first season for Walker with the Phillies. The former Met has given up four or more runs four times already. And opponents are hitting .294 against him as he sports a whopping 7.46 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park.
Shuster had the best performance of his young career in his most recent start. The rookie surrendered only one hit in six innings and notched a season-high seven strikeouts in his first major league victory last Sunday.
I expect Shuster to come down to Earth a bit this time out, but the Braves' bats do the job early and often against Walker to take the second game of this series.
Prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 2
Saturday, 4:10 p.m.: Zack Wheeler (3-4, 4.11 ERA) vs. Charlie Morton (5-4, 3.61 ERA)
While he had a solid April (3-1, 3.86 ERA), Wheeler has struggled mightily this month. The 32-year-old has conceded at least eight hits and three earned runs in back-to-back outings, while losing three of four starts (4.44 ERA in May). It should be noted both of Wheeler's wins against Atlanta last season came at Truist Park.
After throwing 6 2/3 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts on May 15, Morton had his worst start of 2023. The Flemington, New Jersey, native got knocked around for a season-high six runs on seven hits against the Dodgers. It was the first time this season that the 39-year-old gave up multiple home runs in a game.
This will be the highest-scoring affair of this series as Philadelphia edges out the Braves on Saturday evening.
Prediction: Phillies 6, Braves 5
Sunday, 7 p.m.: Undecided vs. Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.97 ERA)
The Phillies have not yet announced a starter for Friday night.
Strider was dominant in April, going 3-0 and conceding just six runs in 30 innings. However, it's been a difficult month for last season's NL Rookie of the Year runner-up as he's 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA. Strider is still one of the best strikeout pitchers, leading MLB with 97 Ks and Ks per nine innings (15.1). It also can't be ignored that the 24-year-old was nearly unhittable versus the Phillies last season as he won all four starts, averaging 8.5 strikeouts per contest with a minuscule .097 OBA.
Currently the odds-on-favorite to win the NL Cy Young award on FanDuel Sportsbook (+240), bet on Strider to slow down the Phillies offense as the Braves force a split of this four-game series.
