Monaco Grand Prix Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023

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27 May 2023

Monaco Grand Prix Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023

Kickstart the Greatest Day of Racing in style with our Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the best available F1 betting odds.

The Greatest Day of Racing will commence as it always does with Formula 1 action across the pond. The city streets of Monte Carlo will take center stage for the annual spectacle known as the Monaco Grand Prix. From the scenic course to the massive crowds and boats in the harbor, this race certainly fits the billing of a can’t-miss event.

Entering the 2023 Monaco GP, the Red Bull Racing-RBPT tandem of Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez has been running roughshod over the rest of Formula 1 by alternating wins in the first five races. The duo also represents the last two winners of this very race with Verstappen emerging victorious in 2021 and Perez doing so a year ago.

Verstappen is the heavy favorite to win again this weekend by the Monaco Grand Prix odds after outlasting Fernando Alonso in qualifying to claim the pole position. Perez will actually be starting at the rear of the field after crashing in qualifying. Can Verstappen fend off Alonso and two Ferrari cars that will be lurking when the race goes green?

Here are our best bets and 2023 Monaco Grand Prix picks for Sunday’s action at the Circuit de Monaco on the city streets of Monte Carlo and La Condamine (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monaco Grand Prix best bets

Outright winner: Max Verstappen (-250 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc (+280 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
Head-to-head matchup parlay: Fernando Alonso (-750 vs. Lance Stroll), Lewis Hamilton (-320 vs. George Russell), Esteban Ocon (-235 vs. Pierre Gasly) and Valtteri Botas (-400 vs. Guanyu Zhou = +165 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Monaco Grand Prix odds

Picking Verstappen to win the Monaco Grand Prix is clearly reaching for the lowest-hanging fruit on the board. BetMGM’s -250 price on the pole-sitter converts to an implied probability of 71.4%, and all of our other best sports betting sites are giving the defending Formula 1 champ an even better chance of winning.

The thing is, bettors aren’t really left with many other great options. At some shops, Fernando Alonso is the only other driver who does not carry double-digit odds to win into the race. Verstappen edged Alonso by .084 seconds in qualifying to claim the pole, but the gap between the two could prove to be much larger on Sunday.

Based on how the first five races of the season have played out, the rest of the field figures to be in catch-up mode from the drop of the green flag. Verstappen has won three races on the year, and his Red Bull Racing teammate, Sergio Perez, has won the other two. Speaking of Perez, he won’t be a threat to win the Monaco GP after crashing out of qualifying.

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With Verstappen’s stiffest competition being mired to a starting spot at the rear of the field, the odds-on favorite will presumably dictate terms in this race. Unless an unforeseen mechanical problem arises, he should win in Monaco for the second time in the last three years.

Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc (+280 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

Is Leclerc being a bit overlooked this week? It’s a fair argument for bettors to consider heading into the Monaco Grand Prix. Despite the fact that he will be starting on the second row in the third position, Leclerc is given only a 26.3% chance to finish on the podium.

To be fair, Leclerc has been no stranger to strong qualifying efforts this season. Unfortunately, his success on Saturdays has largely failed to carry over into Sunday racing, as he has only one podium finish to date.

This same sentiment also rings true for recent Monaco GP efforts. Leclerc has started on the pole in each of the last two years, but ultimately settled for fourth a year ago and a DNF in ‘21 due to a driveshaft failure.

Despite all of this, one cannot discount Leclerc’s starting position when it comes to this year’s race. Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz and Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton will be charging hard from the next row, but the betting value lies with Leclerc. PointsBet’s +280 price is the best available as of Saturday evening. Other shops in the market have this same prop priced as low as +250.

Head-to-head matchup parlay: Fernando Alonso (-750 vs. Lance Stroll), Lewis Hamilton (-320 vs. George Russell), Esteban Ocon (-235 vs. Pierre Gasly) and Valtteri Botas (-400 vs. Guanyu Zhou) = +165 (via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This week, DraftKings has pitted teammates against one another in their driver head-to-heads. The result is a wide price discrepancy on several of these matchups due to how drivers qualified on Saturday. For our final Monaco GP play, we will look to pursue a four-leg parlay of head-to-head winners.

Kicking off our parlay ticket is Alonso. With a front-row starting spot and -750 odds, he is deemed to be a virtual lock to finish ahead of Aston Martin teammate, Lance Stroll, who will be starting all the way back in the 14th position.

The Mercedes tandem of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell is the next matchup we are focusing on. The two will start sixth and eighth on Sunday’s grid, respectively. While Mercedes has clearly lost a step compared to previous years, Hamilton has the better starting spot and is a three-time winner of this event.

Our third leg features the Alpine duo of Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly. Both drivers qualified well on Saturday, but Ocon will certainly have the upper hand from the fourth position with Gasly starting two rows back. Ocon also has a solid history when it comes to the Monaco GP.

Lastly, we have the Alfa Romeo tandem of Valterri Botas and Guanyu Zhou. Botas will be starting five spots in front of Zhou on Sunday and has been the stronger of the two in recent weeks. Botas notably finished ninth in Monaco last year after starting 12th.

When all four legs are combined together, the resulting parlay ticket presents a decent-sized +165 return.