Champions League: Bayern Munich vs. Lazio odds, picks, prediction
Thomas Tuchel and Bayern Munich desperately need a win over Lazio on Tuesday afternoon. It’s an obvious statement because anything short of a win would eliminate Bayern from the Champions League, but that’s just one of the reasons the Bavarians need the victory.
Bayern is now a long shot to catch Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, meaning their 11-year reign in the German top division is coming to an end. Getting eliminated in the Round of 16 in the Champions League would turn this season from disappointment to disaster.
It would also spell the end for Tuchel, who has already agreed to leave the club in the summer.
The good news for Bayern backers is that the Bavarians are a hefty -390 favorite to win the match and are -280 to advance.
There are certain situations in certain competitions that arise and have a big impact on the betting market.
One such scenario is when the favorite in a two-leg fixture in the Champions League loses the first leg on the road by a goal. What ends up happening is that money comes pouring in on the chalk (in this instance, Bayern Munich) because bookmakers know that they’ll take a bunch of casual money on the favorite. It’s like a “must-win tax.”
This betting phenomenon seems to be taking place for this match. In previous years, I’d agree with the market that Bayern deserves to be a heavy favorite in this fixture, but this version of Die Roten has not shown that it can be trusted in this scenario. Not only is Bayern in poor form having lost three of its last five matches (including a 1-0 defeat to Lazio), but the Bavarians have stumbled in big moments throughout the season. This team just hasn’t coped well in high-stakes matches.
The other issue with laying this kind of wood with Bayern is that Lazio’s gameplan is going to be to come out and try to shut things down from the first whistle. The Italian side knows that it can’t engage in a back-and-forth tilt with Bayern, so bettors can expect Lazio to sit deep and dare Bayern to break them down.
A lot of teams would be overwhelmed in that scenario, but Lazio has already shown it can pull it off and it should be noted that FC Copenhagen had some success sitting deep against Bayern, too.
This number just looks way too short on Bayern, so there’s some value backing Lazio to pull the stunner on Tuesday.
The Bet: Lazio +950 (DraftKings)
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