Best bets and odds for UFC 291: Gaethje vs. Poirier 2

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In a rematch of their 2018 fight, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will meet again on Saturday at Vivent Arena in Salt Lake for UFC 291. See all the UFC 291 odds for the main card plus our top Gaethje vs Poirier picks here.

When these two last met, it took until the fourth round for Poirier to win by KO/TKO 33 seconds into the round.

Will he claim a second win over Gaethje Saturday and win the BMF title?

The UFC 291 odds above show that Bobby Green is the biggest moneyline favorite in the UFC 291 odds, being a heavy -380 favorite over Tony Ferguson. Otherwise, the rest of the main card fights are relatively evenly lined. Dustin Poirier comes in at -145 over Justin Gaethje, giving him an implied probability of 59.18 to win. Odds from July 27 at DraftKings.

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Poirier, 34, is 29-7-0, fights a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu style and comes in at 5′9″ 156 pounds. He’s currently ranked third.

His last fight at UFC 281 was in November and he defeated Michael Chandler by submission after two minutes in the third round.

His fight prior to that was a loss, also by submission, in the third round to Charles Oliveira.

Overall, Poirier has won four of his past five fights and is 6-2-0 since he defeated Gaethje in 2018.

Gaethje, also 34, is 24-4-0, is a striker and is 5′11″ 155 pounds. He’s currently ranked fourth.

His last fight came more recently at UFC 286 in March where he defeated Rafael Fizlev in the third round by decision.

He was also defeated by Oliveira by submission in his fight prior to that.

Since losing to Poirier at UFC 281, Gaethje is also 6-2-0, winning four of those six fights by KO/TKO.

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If you look at Poirier’s results earlier in his career, he had many more fights that finished in rounds 1 or 2. But in his last 12 fights, only one ended in Round 1. Three finished in the second round, five in the third, one in the fourth and two in the fifth.

Gaethje too, has seen three of his last five fights go into the third round or later. Two of his past three have gone to decision.

This fight is unlikely to see much wrestling, but instead a ton of striking, leg kicks and close-quarters banging. But still, it could see a feeling-out period in the early stages. Both fighters are tough and while this may not go the distance, it does have the potential to play out similar to the first fight.

A prop like “To Start Round 2″ could be good in a parlay at -400. In what looks like a close contest, Gaethje as an underdog offers the better value. But I’ll side with the over 2.5 in the total for my Poirier vs Gaethje best bet.

Gaethje vs Poirier picks: Over 2.5 (-130)

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Tony Ferguson, 26-8-0, is 0-5 in his past five. He’ll be looking to control this fight with his grappling and get this to the ground. But Ferguson is now 39 and hasn’t won a fight since June 2019. He took a ton of damage versus Nate Diaz in his last fight absorbing lots of jabs.

Facing Bobby Green, 29-14-1, is a step down for El Cucuy compared to some of his recent bouts with Diaz, Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush, Oliviera and Gaethje.

Green also doesn’t come into this fight in the best form, with only two wins in his past seven. But Green rarely gets outstruck, has great jabs, boxing, volume, a better chin and is decent on his takedown defense.

Both of these fighters see their fights going a longer length of time. Ferguson’s fights average 11:20, while Green’s average 11:50. That lead to the over 2.5 rounds prop for this fight being juiced to -135 at DraftKings.

Ferguson looks like he could be done and lacks the one-punch power to knock Green out. Green in a parlay on the moneyline (-380) or Green by KO/TKO/DQ (+165).

Ferguson vs Green picks: Green by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)

Stephen Thompson comes into this fight at 17-6-1 and off a KO/TKO win over Kevin Holland in December in his last fight. However, the 40-year-old is just 4-5-1 in his last nine fights. The American will be fighting on home soil with this fight being in the US.

He’s seen plenty of fights go the distance in his career with 14/24 being decided by decision. But that percentage is even higher when you look at his recent results. In fact, nine of his past 11 fights have all been decided by decision.

Brazilian Michel Pereira is 28-11-0 in his career and comes into UFC 291 on a five-fight winning streak, while also winning eight of his past ten. He hasn’t fought though since May 2022 when he won a split decision fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Pereira certainly will hold the age advantage being 11 years Thompson’s junior at just 29.

He too has seen plenty of fights going the distance of late with each of his past four being decided by decision as well as five of his past seven.

This looks like a stone-cold over bet. Thompson is not a finisher and relies on his karate kicks and usually keeps distance in his fights. Pereira is a good striker but has been more cautious in his approach lately. He’s seen seven straight fights start Round 2. In fact, all seven have also started Round 3, and also ended in Round 3.

Thompson has seen 11 straight fights start Round 2. That prop is heavily juiced to -650. But Thompson has also seen 10/11 fights start Round 3. That is priced at -280.

It’s juiced, but I’ll take over 2.5 rounds in my UFC 291 picks here.

Thompson vs Pereira picks: Over 2.5 (-220)

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