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49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl LVIII Odds and Best Bet
BetMGM has the 49ers as two-point favorites in the biggest game of the NFL season. Assuming nothing changes by kick-off, that means the Niners will be favored in all 20 games they played this year, tying an NFL record.
Despite being viewed as the better team in every matchup, the Niners are only 9-10 against the spread entering the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are 12-7-1, and Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS (10-3 straight-up) as an underdog throughout his career.
The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest points and yards and produced the second-most sacks per game. They also shut off what each of their three playoff opponents did the best, first by holding Tua Tagovailoa to 5.1 yards per attempt (after he averaged 8.3 during the regular season), preventing Josh Allen from completing a pass beyond 15 yards, and then holding the Baltimore Ravens’ league-leading rushing attack to 81 yards on 16 attempts.
The 49ers were the best regular-season team in the league but did not cover in either playoff game and were arguably outplayed in both. Brock Purdy started both games slowly, and the defense allowed an average of 29 points (11.5 above its regular-season average).
Kansas City is playing its best football of the year at the most opportune time and has the best player (Mahomes), the best coach (Andy Reid), the best unit (the defense), and the best kicker (Harrison Butker). It’s also more experienced and is a strong pick to cover and win outright.
