Betting on Pair of Marlins Hitters For 1st Time Ever
Steals are back on the menu in 2023. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.
Targeting a Baltimore Orioles speedster proved profitable on Friday, so we're going back to the well on Saturday with the team's leadoff hitter. We're also betting on two Miami Marlins players to come through for us (there's a first time for everything).
Let's dive into the stolen base market for Saturday's MLB contests in search of some value.
Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Saturday (odds via DraftKings and theScore Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday’s MLB stolen base props
- Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 steals (+330 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jon Berti Over 0.5 steals (+375 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 steals (+550 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐
Saturday’s MLB stolen base prop picks
Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 steals (+330 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bet $5, Win $150 in Bonus Bets
It was Jorge Mateo who came through for us on Friday, and now we're riding with his Baltimore Orioles teammate. The reason for betting on Cedric Mullins is simple: He's being severely undervalued on Saturday due to a recent cold streak.
Mullins owns the same odds as Mateo to steal a base on Saturday despite entering the day's action with the highest projected stolen base total (0.32) by a significant margin, according to NumberFire. And it's not just Mateo to whom we can compare Mullins.
Atlanta Braves leadoff man Ronald Acuna is tied for second with Mullins with four stolen bases this season, and he's projected for 0.22 steals on Saturday. However, Acuna is trading at +245 through DraftKings. Similarly, Julio Rodriguez is projected for 0.19 steals but is trading at +180.
Mullins' +330 odds come with just a 23.26% implied probability. We're getting great value on the speedy outfielder, likely thanks to his 0-for-9 display in his last two games.
Jon Berti Over 0.5 steals (+375 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Deposit Match up to $1,000
The 2022 stolen base king has yet to even attempt to swipe a bag this season after averaging a ridiculous one attempt per 2.2 games last year. Following news of Joey Wendle's injury, which opened the door for Jon Berti to start every game, the Marlins infielder was trading at around +200 to steal a base for nearly an entire week. Now we're getting him at +375 thanks to a cold bat.
That price doesn't reflect Berti's projections, though. He owns the second-highest stolen base projection on Saturday at 0.27, but he's trading at around 50 cents longer than the likes of Tommy Edman (0.23) and Mateo (0.23).
Berti and the Marlins face rookie starting pitcher Kodai Senga, who walked three Miami hitters during his big-league debut. The 33-year-old's on-base issues have been the main reason for his lack of steals thus far, but look for him to be more patient on Saturday.
At these odds and with Berti's track record, the real steal is this bet.
Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 steals (+550 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐
Sticking with the Marlins, we're going back to Jazz Chisholm after he let us down earlier in the season. However, one major change has occurred: Chisholm was hitting cleanup at that time, but he's slotted in the leadoff spot on Saturday.
Chisholm attempted one stolen base every 3.5 games last season, and he's logged only one attempt in eight outings so far in 2023. Of those 17 attempts in 2022, 11 came when Chisholm was hitting leadoff.
The outfielder has had issues this season getting on base, but he owns the third-highest stolen base projection for Saturday's action. Between his aggressiveness on the base paths and his projection, Chisholm should be trading closer to +450, which is reflected in his +475 price at DraftKings. Take advantage of this generous number at theScore Bet.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
